tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15819581556142351862024-03-21T11:37:09.415+11:00Sydney Infrastructure and Property AnalysisFocusing on Sydney Metro rail network and metropolitan wide planning.Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18318091649999857922noreply@blogger.comBlogger69125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1581958155614235186.post-49599419132818953642019-04-27T09:49:00.001+10:002019-04-27T10:20:05.464+10:00Revisiting Hornsby to CBD in 25mins<br />
This blog in October 2015 proposed linking up the upper North Shore line stations (north of Killara) to Sydney Metro Northwest (which has tunnels running underneath Lindfield just 2km from Killara and needed to be shutdown in 2018-2019 anyway for Metro refurbishment). This would have enabled Hornsby to CBD services in 25 minutes as well as providing additional capacity for the upper North Shore line (being the equivalent of quadruplicating tracks between Chatswood and Gordon by making better use of unused tunnels).<br />
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In March 2018, the <a href="https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/system/files/media/documents/2018/wsrns-outcomes-report-mar-2018.pdf" target="_blank">TfNSW Western Sydney Rail Scoping Study</a> provided TfNSW projections for 2056 rail capacity utilisation. These projections show the upper North Shore line will have "Overcrowding limiting reliability" (RED line north of Chatswood in map below), whereas Sydney Metro Northwest capacity will be 60% unused (GREEN loop near Chatswood).<br />
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The opportunity cost is not just that the $10 billion Sydney Metro Northwest capacity is 60% unused but also that higher operating cost double deck trains need to be used on the upper North Shore line instead of lower operating cost single deck trains. Additionally Sydney Metro loses out on having a potential turnback site at Gordon and has to send empty carriages all the way to Tallawong (increasing operating cost).<br />
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Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18318091649999857922noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1581958155614235186.post-27069031488739102752017-07-03T20:37:00.001+10:002019-02-24T11:22:23.746+11:00Sydney Metro West part 4: separate Parramatta CBD station confirmedMy previous posts on <a href="http://sydneyprop.blogspot.com.au/2016/11/sydney-metro-west-part-3-strathfield.html">Sydney Metro West (November 2016)</a> highlighted how Parramatta station in the coming decades will be as busy as Wynyard is today. The conclusion drawn from my post in November 2016 was that the current Parramatta station will be primarily a <b><u>destination</u></b> station (like Wynard/Town Hall today, with 4-6 platforms), and could not serve an interchange function (like Central is today, with approximately 20 platforms). This seems pretty basic and self obvious, as Parramatta station is only 4 platforms with limited stairs/lift capacity, and it would be expensive and disruptive to upgrade it into 20 odd platforms like Central today.<br />
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Six months after my post, Parramatta city council has released a transport study. The link to this study is at:<br />
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<a href="https://www.cityofparramatta.nsw.gov.au/sites/council/files/inline-files/Att_01%20Parramatta%20CBD%20Strategic%20Transport%20Study.PDF">https://www.cityofparramatta.nsw.gov.au/sites/council/files/inline-files/Att_01%20Parramatta%20CBD%20Strategic%20Transport%20Study.PDF</a><br />
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This study was commissioned by the local government council but used the TfNSW Strategic Transport Model (STM). It is full of reams of new data but of particular relevance is Action 10.2 on page 33, which states the following:<br />
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<span style="font-family: "arialmt"; font-size: 9.000000pt;">Action 10.2: Consider the need for, and
plan for a <b>second railway station in the
CBD</b> in order to offer additional travel
options from broader areas to the CBD
and address future level of demand.
<b>Current forecasts indicate similar station
demand to Wynyard by 2036</b>; there is a
need to decentralise demand and de-
congest the Parramatta Transport
Interchange </span></div>
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The above action point confirms my previous assertions that "old" Parramatta station is unsuitable to be an interchange point with Sydney Metro West (due to it's inability to handle the massive passenger flows required of an interchange station). Instead, the future Sydney Metro West Parramatta CBD station will be physically separated from the "old" Parramatta station. The configuration will be similar to North Sydney/Victoria Cross and Pitt St/Town Hall - in each case, TfNSW elected to create a new station that does not interchange with the old station, and instead operates in a new/complementary CBD catchment as shown in the diagrams below:<br />
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<a href="https://strategicmatters.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/rail-catchment-2a.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="631" height="640" src="https://strategicmatters.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/rail-catchment-2a.jpg" width="504" /></a></div>
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Note how Victoria Cross, by being located separate to North Sydney extends the rail catchment of North Sydney CBD, as well as providing capacity augmentation to the busiest part of North Sydney (where the two station catchments overlap).Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18318091649999857922noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1581958155614235186.post-12520607830912251652017-07-01T15:11:00.001+10:002019-02-24T11:22:22.761+11:00US Tech Giants secretly funding Aussie housing "bubble" but Trump may pull them outMuch has been written about the multi-industry disruption arising from the entry of US technology giants into phones, music, automobiles, advertising, publishing and retail. Now also add secretly funding the Aussie housing "bubble" to that list.<br />
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As revealed in a <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2017/sp-dg-2017-04-06.html" target="_blank">speech by Aussie central banker Guy Debelle</a>, the cash rich US tech giants have been tapped by major Aussie banks (Westpac, CBA, ANZ, NAB) to replace the funding Aussie banks lost following the withdrawal of funding by US money market mutual funds. <a href="https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwi47-mlqefUAhXIW7wKHelJCSkQFggoMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.rba.gov.au%2Fpublications%2Fbulletin%2F2017%2Fjun%2Fpdf%2Fbu-0617-3-australian-capital-flows.pdf&usg=AFQjCNEqqSHQXGZLJyphcKSCaT9B0tLqxA" target="_blank">A central bank research paper by Susan Black et al</a> provides further detail on the quantum of this funding - as shown in graph 10, nearly <b>$70 billion of Aussie bank funding</b> has been pulled out by money market funds, but Aussie banks have nearly entirely replaced this funding with cash from giant US companies.<br />
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This $70 billion is just a small fraction of the approximately $500 billion of cash and marketable securities held by giants like Apple (US$250 billion) and Google (US$70 billion). But it likely accounts for a substantial part of the short term wholesale funding of Aussie major banks. For example, the biggest of the "big four" CBA's total short term wholesale funding is $111 billion.<br />
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Short & long term wholesale funding is used by major Aussie banks to fund as much as 40% of their balance sheet (of which residential mortages are by far the largest component). Any disruption to bank funding sources has major consequences for Australian mortgage interest rates and Australian house prices.<br />
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Notorious secrecy surrounds exactly where tech giants like Apple invest their cash, which is managed by Apple subsidiary Braeburn Capital, headquartered in Nevada. Previous disclosures of Apple's secret cash trails have been very quickly covered up, or have been met with punitive responses, according to Francis Yoon at Reuters South Korea:<br />
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The Maeil Business Newspaper reported on October 12 (2016) that Apple had placed an order to buy U.S. dollar bonds of KEB Hana, one of South Korea's largest banks in asset terms, but that the issuer had chosen not to accept the bid. </blockquote>
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The article infuriated Korean bankers, who said Apple was "extremely sensitive" about revealing how it managed its cash. "This is not a small issue. Apple could stop buying Korean paper entirely," said a Korean banker, who did not participate in the KEB Hana deal. "This is super crazy.".... </blockquote>
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The Maeil later revised its article, eliminating Apple's identity. The story still cited JP Morgan Asset Management and Norway's central bank as participants in the deal. Concerns over Apple's reaction stem from a similar case in 2014, when a Hyundai Capital Services executive told reporters that Apple had participated in its recent $500 million issue of three-year floating-rate notes. </blockquote>
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That, bankers said, upset Apple so much it refused to take part in any future bond issues from the company. "Apple never bought Hyundai Capital's bonds again. Hyundai even went to Reno several times, but Apple would never meet them," said a banker close to Hyundai</blockquote>
Whilst not directly mentioning Apple, Westpac bank has confirmed tech giants are an important funding source, as <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/big-four-banks-hope-to-sate-us-tech-giants-appetite-for-bonds-20150607-ghijqo.html" target="_blank">reported by the Sydney Morning Herald</a>:<br />
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"We treat them as we treat Fidelity or Vanguard or any other investor," said Curt Zuber, treasurer of Westpac, which has issued $6.1 billion of US-dollar-denominated bonds in the financial year started October 1, and a total of $22 billion since October 2012. </blockquote>
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All four of Australia's biggest banks, heavily reliant on overseas debt markets, have sent representatives to Reno, Nevada, where Apple's money-management unit, Braeburn Capital Inc., is based, according to people with knowledge of the trips.</blockquote>
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This raises questions about the short term funding risks of Aussie banks, should Trump and Ryan achieve their corporate tax cutting agendas. US tech giants will then repatriate their overseas cash hoards back to the US, to buy back shares and simplify their balance sheets. The action by the South Australian state government to tax wholesale bank liabilities that aren't even intrinsically linked to South Australian state borders would only increase incentives to pull out of funding Aussie banks.<br />
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Australian house prices are determined by a delicate interplay between the "fear" (of missing out), and the confidence in the future prospects of Australia's cities and economy. A major disruption to the major bank "pillars" funding the Australian economy and funding of housing debt can upset the equilibrium between fear and confidence. This delicate equilibrium is what drives the individual behaviour of home owners, consumers (spenders) and businesses/investors. Small changes to a long standing equilibrium can easily snowball into large and disruptive changes (the so-called "Minsky" moment). Australian households have high levels of debt and at some point in the future may reach such a Minsky moment. Could the Trump tax cuts be the trigger that bursts the Aussie housing "bubble"?<br />
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Disclosure: the author of this article owns shares in Google, Apple, all four major Australian banks, as well as properties in metropolitan Sydney.Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18318091649999857922noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1581958155614235186.post-37336046456179212082016-11-16T21:52:00.000+11:002019-02-24T11:22:24.235+11:00Sydney Metro West part 3: Strathfield interchange key to viable patronageThe West Metro to Parramatta has been announced as the preferred next metro line, with stations confirmed for Parramatta, Olympic Park, White Bay and Sydney CBD. Other stations are to be considered but have not been mentioned.<br />
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For the announced scope (ie: terminating in Parramatta), the biggest question in my opinion is how to fill up the announced 40K/hr capacity without hitting bottlenecks elsewhere in the "old" rail system. To see how big 40K is, have a look at the left bar chart below (source = TfNSW).<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiROgB5kNi-ZqIVp4njca85eVL6aYDl_2uJHV98JzuVEGXNlVynCqoyYa-65lk-vtKvDyUX35zXKTv-9IhaiDxidsDvq1t0RlbtnVfXGXjZJh2kGZDwF6mPiWsdri0RF0bXj_SwMtuVDsgS/s1600/Western+line+2051.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="382" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiROgB5kNi-ZqIVp4njca85eVL6aYDl_2uJHV98JzuVEGXNlVynCqoyYa-65lk-vtKvDyUX35zXKTv-9IhaiDxidsDvq1t0RlbtnVfXGXjZJh2kGZDwF6mPiWsdri0RF0bXj_SwMtuVDsgS/s640/Western+line+2051.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a name='more'></a>* In yr 2051, TfNSW forecasts 5000/hr station entries at Parramatta and 2000/hr transfers (eg. from bus, Parra light rail, Cumberland heavy rail, etc).<br />
=> This is just 7K pax/hr potentially catching West metro at Parramatta station.<br />
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* A super-fast metro at Parramatta might induce more transfers from the Western line, but the Parramatta's existing four platforms (on the "old train lines") have only 25K/hr capacity. (Benchmark = Wynyard today, which also has four platforms and is congested today at 25K/hr). Note TfNSW are forecasting 19K exits at Parramatta.<br />
=> Parramatta's potential latent transfer capacity is only an extra 6K/hr.<br />
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Max potential Metro boardings at Parramatta = 7K + 6K = 13K/hr.<br />
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For the announced intermediate "destination" stations (OP, White Bay) these will likely have exits > entries, ie: by the laws of arithmetic, train loading will drop below 13K at these stations. (eg. OP will have 20K jobs = 6K exits @ 30% rail mode share).<br />
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So how else can patronage on West Metro be boosted?<br />
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The answer is to add 1~2 further "interchange" stations, to feed the Metro. See right bar chart above for an example - Strathfield has 15K entries+transfers, which if they all were diverted onto the Metro, will double the potential utilisation, from 13K to something like a max of 28K (in practice more like 20K~25K as some pax will still catch "old" train lines). Furthermore, Strathfield has 8 platforms and hence has double the "old train line" interchange capacity of Parramatta, so it has much more headroom to induce even more transfers to Metro than the base case 2051 forecasts.<br />
<br />Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18318091649999857922noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1581958155614235186.post-77166683296934770732016-09-11T18:15:00.001+10:002019-02-24T11:22:26.559+11:00Sydney Metro West part 2: complementary metro and light rail catchmentsThe first part looked at one proposal to replace the Parramatta light rail line with a metro.<br />
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However, the Parramatta to Olympic corridor, at over 1600 hectares of potential renewal lands, in the geographic heart of Greater Sydney, could easily support both a light rail line and a metro, as shown in the catchment map below (blue circles = light rail stations, purple circles = metro stations). The metro would have stations at Silverwater and at Pippita as the key intermediate stops between Parramatta and Strathfield.<br />
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Note that Olympic Park <b><u>is not</u></b> an intermediate stop for the metro, as it actually has very limited value capture opportunities - sufficient for light rail but not for heavy rail... more on this later - first what needs to be explained is the concept of a "continuous walkup catchment".<br />
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<a name='more'></a>The next diagram shows how having three rail lines run in parallel is needed to create continuous 3km wide walkup rail catchments (the purple shaded bands). These "continuous rail catchments" are formed by the lining up of stations across the existing Western heavy rail line, a new metro and new light rail line. These catchments are then the foci for high density urban renewal and value capture. An analogy can be drawn to Manhattan (which like the Parramatta Olympic corridor, consists of a 10km long x 3km wide land mass).<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPivCg-tTCSiu3sm6DB7AIJDqP_FoUHVNbtVqbNOhzC-KKK-sEOXfGDbfRr0-vA-17y8BwHUr1mhHExfdX5tSg-V7FB3uhDPiBYkX1HNksUu-DXexu1T-O3n5k5UbTP9CZy0T4T23EYM7s/s1600/ParraCorridor2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="376" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPivCg-tTCSiu3sm6DB7AIJDqP_FoUHVNbtVqbNOhzC-KKK-sEOXfGDbfRr0-vA-17y8BwHUr1mhHExfdX5tSg-V7FB3uhDPiBYkX1HNksUu-DXexu1T-O3n5k5UbTP9CZy0T4T23EYM7s/s640/ParraCorridor2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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So for the vision of a "Manhattan-like" Olympic corridor to be realised, both a metro and a light rail line running in parallel are needed. What is not needed is a metro station at Olympic Park. Instead, the metro station should be located further to the south, at Pippita where the existing Olympic Park-Lidcombe shuttle crosses over the M4 and Parramatta Rd.<br />
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So why is a metro station not needed at Olympic Park? The value capture opportunities at Olympic Park are actually quite poor. Much of it is already occupied by sports stadiums/facilities, parks and other environmentally sensitive open space (eg. brick pit). The remaining town centre is sub-scale and is already being redeveloped into residential (not commercial) towers and hence is not going to be redeveloped again any time soon. A light rail line augmentation is sufficient. This can be seen in the follow value capture data from the WestLink consortium:<br />
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Carter St has more value capture opportunities, but it is actually poorly served by Olympic Park station. Instead, it would be better served by a "Pippita" station located near where the Olympic Park shuttle line crosses over the M4, as shown below. This station would also add value capture opportunities at Homebush industrial parks and Flemington markets, located south of Parramatta Rd.<br />
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<br />Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18318091649999857922noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1581958155614235186.post-54790497974941050322016-09-11T17:10:00.001+10:002019-02-24T11:22:25.359+11:00Sydney Metro West Part 1: detailed scoop on WestLink proposal<br />
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The SMH has an <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/revealed-new-metro-between-sydney-cbd-and-parramatta-20160831-gr5d6m.html" target="_blank">"exclusive" story</a> on Sydney West Metro, but was light on detail, apart from speculating it could replace parts of the Parramatta to Strathfield light rail network.<br />
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Below is one proposal that gives more "inside" detail on how one proposed West Metro line would work (effectively directly replacing the proposed Parramatta light rail to Strathfield). This proposal has gone through a few iterations over the past few months, possibly due to feedback given to the private consortium by TfNSW. The drawings below were taken from the February 2016 iteration, but there have been some subsequent refinements (such as an extension to Maroubra and deletion of the station at North Strathfield).<br />
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It is definitely pleasing to see the involvement of land owners and property companies becoming involved in transport planning. The old "transport first" approach relies too much on Government capital grants and operational subsidies to be viable - as user fares cover only a minority of operating costs - let alone funding capital costs. The result is that many worthwhile transport projects can't be funded. It also results in lack of integration between stations and surrounding retail/commercial uses (resulting in dark, poor lit, inactive stations outside of peak hours). In contrast, land owner led transport planning can create stations with better pedestrian access and more retail and commercial activation and allows the matching of funding with more intensive land use.<br />
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However, one controversy is whether this West Metro proposal would undermine the business case for a light rail line also. Part 2 of this thread will demonstrate this is not the case by looking into an alternative metro alignment which will allow light rail and metro to co-exist in the same corridor (but with complementary value capture catchments).<br />
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<b><u>Note</u></b>: images below are an iconic interpretation of the West Metro Link only.</div>
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For actual maps sourced from the WestLink private consortium,<br />
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go to City of Parramatta website at this link:</div>
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<a href="http://www.cityofparramatta.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/John-Kinsella-Billbergia.pdf" target="_blank">http://www.cityofparramatta.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/John-Kinsella-Billbergia.pdf</a></div>
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[Part 2 to continue in next post]Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18318091649999857922noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1581958155614235186.post-57591778734650527112016-05-11T20:19:00.000+10:002019-02-24T11:22:25.500+11:00Sydney Metro EIS: Central Platform 16 (T1 Northbound) to become dual faced<br />
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The Sydney Metro EIS was released today at (majorprojects.planning.nsw.gov.au)<br />
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More analysis to come in future but a quick note to highlight that the T1 Northbound line (Platform 16 at Central Station) will become dual faced. This has critical importance to improving the efficiency of the Western line by allowing passengers to alight from both sides of the train doors, potentially halving dwell time at Central.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRXhvbITY8JcBwWNzFwozu1S4kYNzURH1jMZTtZDYmWtRPwQ0XinC6iBTYsVLQWZzjUlB6Jz9J7ouRLx8q2-pofTPDQrzPajhF2_hQvdj6KnnxoQQN9hQOincthbmRaPCDPyxbXqAlmcDS/s1600/Sydney+Metro+Central+Station.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRXhvbITY8JcBwWNzFwozu1S4kYNzURH1jMZTtZDYmWtRPwQ0XinC6iBTYsVLQWZzjUlB6Jz9J7ouRLx8q2-pofTPDQrzPajhF2_hQvdj6KnnxoQQN9hQOincthbmRaPCDPyxbXqAlmcDS/s640/Sydney+Metro+Central+Station.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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This was a prediction that was made in <a href="http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=128615865&postcount=1709" target="_blank">November</a>....<br />
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<br />Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18318091649999857922noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1581958155614235186.post-6854857775078925552016-02-28T21:52:00.000+11:002019-02-24T11:22:26.135+11:00Sydney Metro NW: higher cost than CityRail if no branching (part 2)The previous post established Sydney Metro NW will have very poor cost per pax metrics (even worse than Sydney Trains!). We now look at the case if Metro NW also connects an additional branch by taking over the (existing) North Shore rail line tracks between Gordon and Hornbsy as follows:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHy318BWeW_GcoX7YXHgavdAyjD5ZgTA2l18NM-Var9okpe7Ldvut0i2dl2jMpKI2Fjsk-FOwsjsOTNkH5s-7xbO6o84E8NVGVhI48PvkwOBFSUXoidgYVHD2Q3YcE48Q0L_BtnkzzlTkV/s1600/Sydney+Metro+v3+pg4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHy318BWeW_GcoX7YXHgavdAyjD5ZgTA2l18NM-Var9okpe7Ldvut0i2dl2jMpKI2Fjsk-FOwsjsOTNkH5s-7xbO6o84E8NVGVhI48PvkwOBFSUXoidgYVHD2Q3YcE48Q0L_BtnkzzlTkV/s640/Sydney+Metro+v3+pg4.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
This will improve cost metrics as follows:<br />
<a name='more'></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh__dSaTca2zlaR43AnPVTFoHyFw8LscG8eE6tya1yuIVwQQGo5FaOfkOfyS9BICZYW_nALW4EaUOyNhsF6GAQPAmlBYYc7Apx3bI-2Hmnp6uRNd2G12aQ18RMsn7GLP-f1_rAHiSSn9F35/s1600/Sydney+Metro+v3+pg5.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; display: inline !important; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="348" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh__dSaTca2zlaR43AnPVTFoHyFw8LscG8eE6tya1yuIVwQQGo5FaOfkOfyS9BICZYW_nALW4EaUOyNhsF6GAQPAmlBYYc7Apx3bI-2Hmnp6uRNd2G12aQ18RMsn7GLP-f1_rAHiSSn9F35/s640/Sydney+Metro+v3+pg5.jpg" width="640" /></a><br />
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There are also savings on the North Shore line (which as truncated at Gordon), as follows:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwWeQ-vPsrMWK7asRKS4VNqRIhZOIDVpgOCOCIOb9rBX7Ub3Kf5m0hIN2u14srJZ-die0edqZGIYhpxGQ56DzEDYB0XVAYRyiK1AYyvJZmadVwsoZPxjML75lbl0ZMiB2TBZ4IyNAqceWG/s1600/Sydney+Metro+v3+pg7.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwWeQ-vPsrMWK7asRKS4VNqRIhZOIDVpgOCOCIOb9rBX7Ub3Kf5m0hIN2u14srJZ-die0edqZGIYhpxGQ56DzEDYB0XVAYRyiK1AYyvJZmadVwsoZPxjML75lbl0ZMiB2TBZ4IyNAqceWG/s640/Sydney+Metro+v3+pg7.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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OK, so what is the bottom line? The North Shore line becomes a "Tube-like" all stops short rail line with stations very closely spaced together and covering inner urban catchments like the lower north shore. In contrast, Sydney Metro becomes a Crossrail-like network, with wide station spacing so that outer suburban job centres are linked up with a rapid transit rail service:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhof-w8mhFfdErf33Zyd_4e_ukGu5N6dj1IxxZyVszu9dh3aS4Z4Cx3p9KC29fRJm-Smpz0JJPyUgXXH55KdIV-cSQtpGByjgYWm6aJbwiqTfftTE1BZQtSKBlcwSSmOHC7kPqRKmvqaT9Z/s1600/Sydney+Metro+v3+pg8.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="343" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhof-w8mhFfdErf33Zyd_4e_ukGu5N6dj1IxxZyVszu9dh3aS4Z4Cx3p9KC29fRJm-Smpz0JJPyUgXXH55KdIV-cSQtpGByjgYWm6aJbwiqTfftTE1BZQtSKBlcwSSmOHC7kPqRKmvqaT9Z/s640/Sydney+Metro+v3+pg8.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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So the future vision for Sydney Metro is "Crossrail" - and not "Tube" (like many currently see it).Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18318091649999857922noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1581958155614235186.post-35443872955226564922016-02-27T20:51:00.000+11:002019-02-24T11:22:24.165+11:00Sydney Metro NW: higher cost than CityRail if no branching (part 1)Branching of railway lines have a bad name from an engineering perspective (but often are a good thing from an economic perspective).<br />
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They can cause overcrowding (especially at inner urban stations) during peak hours, they can increase complexity and they can cause unreliability if they are on the surface (ie: if they are not in a tunnel or in an overpass).<br />
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They are also (wrongly) blamed for low frequencies (eg. every 15~30mins) during off peak periods. However, as we shall see below, in fact it is the high operating costs of unbranched lines that make high off peak frequencies uneconomic. As shown below, branching in this case **helps** improve off peak economics and is either neutral or positive for better off peak frequencies.<br />
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As for the issue of decreased reliability, this is so for surface ("flat junction") rail lines, where branches need to cross over the other rail line (of the bidirectional track pair). But the flat junction problems disappear completely when rail lines are in separate tunnels.<br />
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Without a doubt, Sydney's network has far too much branching, with each end often branching not just to two branches, but often into three or four branches. Clearly 3-4 branches are too much, but this does not necessarily mean a single branch point (into two branches) is bad. In fact, around the world, numerous modern rail systems use branching - typically to a moderate degree of one branch at one or both ends. Crossrail, RER, even Hong Kong's East Rail line all have branches.<br />
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So should Sydney Metro have branches? Previously, a case was made that Sydney Metro SW does not need a branch. Instead, by extending to Liverpool and then to Parramatta (via taking over the Cumberland line tracks), this would bring in enough patronage to fill up the 45,000 pax/hr capacity of Sydney Metro without branching.<br />
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On the other hand, Metro NW is a different story. There is massive spare capacity and the many "string of pearls" employment centres strung up at Chatswood, MacPark, Castle Hill, Norwest and Rouse will all serve to reduce & even out the peaky, unidirectional passenger flows seen in Metro SW. So for the foreseeable future to 2060 and beyond, capacity of 22,000 pax/hr will be the most that is ever needed.<br />
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Metro NW without a branch will also have very poor operating cost metrics. The CIE (Centre for International Economics) Report released by IPART in December 2015 shows that all the hype about Sydney Metro's low maintenance driverless trains (that get rid of drivers and get rid of train guards completely), is just that - hype. Benchmarks from around the world show that even the most "technically efficient" rail systems are only around 30% more efficient than Sydney Trains (in terms of cost of moving one carriage over one km). For example, Singapore's Metro has a cost of $7.55 (to move one train car for one km) vs Sydney Trains $9.13. Where the real inefficiencies lies is not lack of fancy train hardware or maintenance cost inefficiency, but in "allocative efficiency" - which is about patronage, rail catchments, service differentiation and demand side measures - ie: measures to ensure train carriages are kept full. Allocative efficiency (ie: cost per pax trip) is where Sydney Trains underperforms by 300%, as shown below:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglIpnx35njRY-Qn2hhQExrTaVXx1UM_rLiF9XILpJmOoh74EHa9jgDTZ4xdixMcTh602I0EofcKUVF3zhbJcfqETKpQWCnYiJ6DinX_zrtPL3sw4e-R5H49kV7WdCHWctH_sJer07XoFv0/s1600/Sydney+Metro+v3+pg1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglIpnx35njRY-Qn2hhQExrTaVXx1UM_rLiF9XILpJmOoh74EHa9jgDTZ4xdixMcTh602I0EofcKUVF3zhbJcfqETKpQWCnYiJ6DinX_zrtPL3sw4e-R5H49kV7WdCHWctH_sJer07XoFv0/s640/Sydney+Metro+v3+pg1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
The Singapore benchmark of $7.55 to move one train car along one km provides an excellent way to cost Sydney Metro NW's operating expenses:<br />
<a name='more'></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOengOJ1BsT_WVFCX2meacxpLAghi4qVeOCuS4DnOrMpSNGzrVtqT1FK6Qj-YTFEbdOQT9EIEAGVToXp-Bh0zQ1GDGo6nEMlcgo3lgXnjrOPjzKR6bt9zmcz2191_1SzX1XZ1iQocqofdT/s1600/Sydney+Metro+v3+pg2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; display: inline !important; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOengOJ1BsT_WVFCX2meacxpLAghi4qVeOCuS4DnOrMpSNGzrVtqT1FK6Qj-YTFEbdOQT9EIEAGVToXp-Bh0zQ1GDGo6nEMlcgo3lgXnjrOPjzKR6bt9zmcz2191_1SzX1XZ1iQocqofdT/s640/Sydney+Metro+v3+pg2.jpg" width="640" /></a><br />
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Note that the above equation:</div>
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1. Incorporates total operating costs ie: train operations, train & track maintenance, customer interfacing/ticketing systems & general overheads (but not infrastructure construction).</div>
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2. Assumes equivalence to Singapore Metro’s technical efficiency levels of $7.55 to move one train car over one km. This figure is valid for both peak & off peak. (Heavy 300 tonne trains will not change much in weight regardless of pax loading, ie: whether full or empty, the wear & tear on tracks, the electricity use, the rolling stock maintenance, general overheads, etc are all the same per car.km).</div>
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3. A high level of objective certainty exists for all above numerator figures - only the denominator involves “subjective” estimates.</div>
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4. A similar calculation applies to off peak costs (lower pax/hr denominator but also lower numerator with only 6tph instead of 15tph). Peak hour however accounts for majority (55-60%) of total operating costs.</div>
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The table below shows what the operating costs per trip are once the patronage numbers are plugged into the denominator of the above equation (using NSW Government's NWRL forecasts as well as a +20% and -20% high/low patronage scenarios):<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKAM8V2Zq5XS6rASud_d-mf-mdx085SP9D-0wNjvOYelR03NAxUwYyeZa3yE0TSgZ-s4D_3s8QTKRQubSH3P02QeEi-k0tvTxvf2oJmSJnQJ4xOds9NFEJS5DwHp2DOsLvf272UmdGVM8R/s1600/Sydney+Metro+v3+pg3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="396" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKAM8V2Zq5XS6rASud_d-mf-mdx085SP9D-0wNjvOYelR03NAxUwYyeZa3yE0TSgZ-s4D_3s8QTKRQubSH3P02QeEi-k0tvTxvf2oJmSJnQJ4xOds9NFEJS5DwHp2DOsLvf272UmdGVM8R/s640/Sydney+Metro+v3+pg3.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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Note that Metro SW has much higher patronage than Metro NW, due to it not just taking Bankstown line patrons but also taking on Western line passengers for trains that will terminate at Central (passengers from these trains will then go down escalators directly from the Central platforms where the trains have terminated, and catch Sydney Metro to get to CBD stations like Pitt St, Martin Place and Barangaroo). These Metro SW trains then travel north the full 40km - all the way to Rouse Hill and Cudgegong road. Due to lower patronage on Metro NW, these trains will be substantially empty. This is why the costs per passenger trip are so high on Metro NW. In fact, it will be even more expensive than the average across the "old" Sydney Trains network.</div>
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As the problem is one of relative imbalance between Metro SW and Metro NW, densification of these corridors will actually worsen (rather than improve) the poor Metro NW cost metrics:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpgzK09A2iY2z8dFt_iDRHhTd6Vx4wKcdQBGX5ki7BjSwlMmPiNz1sjbs2fENNfeilUnpnXtiYPABC461XqoCpNNm2uD3C8j8mv4ijyMSTqouUmhqq3MnBdGoDJ2EIaxOtWgIRWdZDlKdk/s1600/Sydney+Metro+Land+Use.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="292" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpgzK09A2iY2z8dFt_iDRHhTd6Vx4wKcdQBGX5ki7BjSwlMmPiNz1sjbs2fENNfeilUnpnXtiYPABC461XqoCpNNm2uD3C8j8mv4ijyMSTqouUmhqq3MnBdGoDJ2EIaxOtWgIRWdZDlKdk/s640/Sydney+Metro+Land+Use.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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A second part of this post will show how this can be remedied by connecting Sydney Metro NW to a branch formed from the upper part of the north shore line (to Hornsby). This will nearly double patronage whilst halving line length (20km to Hornsby vs 40km to Cudgegong Rd). To give away a preview of the key outcome, the combined effect of these two measures, plus cost savings by truncating (ie: shortening) the North Shore line will overall reduce cost per pax trip on a branched Metro NW+Hornsby to as little as ~$1 per trip. This brings a branched Metro NW+Hornsby to levels of allocative efficiency comparable to some of the best around the world. So if you can't wait for the second part of this post, the take home message is branching Metro NW to also include Hornsby will dramatically improve allocative efficiency. Alternatively, even higher service levels can be achieved for the same cost.<br />
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<br />Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18318091649999857922noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1581958155614235186.post-13236683310266276632016-02-02T20:49:00.000+11:002019-02-24T11:22:22.831+11:00Sydney Metro: extension to Liverpool will untangle Western lineIn December 2015, TfNSW confirmed it was considering an extension of Sydney Metro to Liverpool via a direct route that would pass through the vicinity of Bankstown airport. This announcement also marks the first (major) departure of Sydney Metro plans from the 2012 Transport Masterplan. However, most people would consider the Parramatta to CBD corridor to be higher in priority, so why is so much being poured into the Bankstown & Liverpool corridors and not the Parramatta/Western line corridor?<br />
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As it turns out, the Liverpool extension would not only speed up Liverpool to CBD journeys, but it can also untangle the Western line and create a 200% capacity increment, which should be enough for a Sydney of 10+ million people. Plus it would also provide a Cumberland line "on steroids", that would have trains running every 2 minutes instead of the current every 15-30 minutes. The diagram below shows an example of how the Western line "untangling" would work:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiy3q_13MYFJMlS_Lk9Q0qHG_tLMqjn6F2uR_k4-m09oUjYw_mJX4Ahy2Sox2l7ieLdL1PeCqkZkijYQKvDrj7YY5K6NW9sEFwqhvB0ubPM_WdFp98_TJa3Hc1HcpMh_2NCCfJjSU0PUlrx/s1600/Sydney+Metro+v2+page8.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="388" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiy3q_13MYFJMlS_Lk9Q0qHG_tLMqjn6F2uR_k4-m09oUjYw_mJX4Ahy2Sox2l7ieLdL1PeCqkZkijYQKvDrj7YY5K6NW9sEFwqhvB0ubPM_WdFp98_TJa3Hc1HcpMh_2NCCfJjSU0PUlrx/s640/Sydney+Metro+v2+page8.jpg" width="640" /></a><br />
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More detailed explanation of the above diagram:<br />
(a) Current rail configuration is shown in the left above, potential future configuration is shown in the right above.<br />
(b) <b>GREEN line & stations</b>: Currently trains from Liverpool travel up to Granville, then continuing parallel to the Western line into the CBD's City Circle (stopping at various stops including Lidcombe, Homebush, Strathfield, Burwood, Ashfield & Newtown along the way)<br />
(c) <b>ORANGE line (on right hand side ie: future configuration)</b>: If Sydney Metro is extended from Bankstown to Liverpool, then the stations between Merrylands and Liverpool can all be potentially serviced by Sydney Metro - ie: instead of travelling north to Granville, trains travel south and then west to Bankstown. This route is actually faster for majority of passengers (boarding south of Fairfield) than the current Green route.<br />
(d) <b>YELLOW & PURPLE lines (on right hand side ie: future configuration)</b>: Penrith and Parramatta trains now has dedicated use of all 4 tracks passing through Granville, whereas currently they are more or less restricted to only two tracks. This allows a doubling of train services on the Western line. Trains using the PURPLE tracks will terminate at Central, whereas trains using the YELLOW tracks continue into the City Circle.<br />
(e) <b>RED line (on right hand side ie: future configuration)</b>: Trains from Northern line (ie: Pennant Hills/Epping/West Ryde/Rhodes/etc) have full use of the middle tracks and continue into the CBD joining up with the North Shore line. Homebush, Croydon, Burwood and Ashfield are exclusively serviced by the RED line (this is so that YELLOW line trains can be made faster, by bypassing all these stations).<br />
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What's interesting is that the Liverpool extension is relatively cheap. At just 8km and at most just a couple of new stations, it is likely a fraction of the cost of a new rail line to Parramatta, which would require at least 22km of new tunnel and up to 11 stations (in the 2009 West Metro proposal). It also spreads the benefits between both Liverpool and Parramatta more evenly - rather than concentrating most of the benefit on Parramatta, which already has much faster CBD travel times than Liverpool (27 mins vs 52 mins). The main disadvantage is that it doesn't have the Olympic Corridor land value capture & urban renewal that a Parramatta metro would provide. (However, Bankstown airport could become an urban renewal precinct with a Liverpool metro passing through it).<br />
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Nonetheless, there is a case for both. Liverpool extension is a "cheap" first step, along with light rail in the Olympic corridor delivering the initial urban renewal goals. Then a new rail line from Parramatta to White Bay to further augment urban renewal and land value capture at Silverwater and at Flemington. In this instance, the Parramatta metro is justified and financed by land value capture of new rail catchements, as capacity wouldn't be needed for existing Western line catchments any time before 2050. For this reason, the light and heavy rail catchments should be chosen to be complementary so as to maximise land value capture and to provide continuous rail catchments and urban renewal from existing Auburn and Homebush town centres all the way out to the river frontages of the Olympic Corridor. Interchange centres would then be Parramatta and Strathfield. (Olympic Park itself is a poor interchange point given the increasingly residential nature of development there and the lack of connectivity of it's existing rail station. However, a "Pippita station" could be located on both the existing Olympic Park-Lidcombe shuttle shuttle line, as well as on the Parramatta metro line):<br />
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(For full resolution version of map below, <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoWB5FI7LMCd4IqTr69MvEN5Wg5ZDNBbA1uWgeLxbXdAt9uOqGRgmK44pJxd0nYY5xPZxqOwIyKtEhcsH9q3tXwyvnCwf5yYZe1xtlSrPeDKpyUH0NBQ3r9Qrfc7kv-GoRD5cizxULl99s/s1600/Parra+City+Circle+v4+Poster.jpg" target="_blank">click here</a>)</div>
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More info: <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7YddOEJT7Svbms3YWhEYWR0cjA/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank">Sydney Metro discussion paper</a></div>
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Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18318091649999857922noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1581958155614235186.post-57352410484882771142016-01-31T21:53:00.000+11:002019-02-24T11:22:25.430+11:00WestConnex Stage 5 & 6??? When does WestConnex end?We know WestConnex has these stages either already under construction, or in planning:<br />
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Stage 1: M4 widening (east of Parramatta) and tunnel to Harberfield<br />
Stage 2: M5 duplication<br />
Stage 3: M4-M5 link<br />
Stage 4: Western Harbour tunnel and possible Northern Beaches link<br />
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The <a href="http://infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/projects/files/Australian_Infrastructure_Plan-Infrastructure_Priority_List.pdf" target="_blank">latest report from Infrastructure Australia</a> shows yet another stage is under consideration:<br />
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Stage 5:<b> <span style="font-family: "timesnewromanpsmt";">M4 motorway upgrade - Parramatta to Lapstone</span></b><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: "timesnewromanpsmt";"><i>(Source) page 7 from this report:</i></span></b></div>
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Could this be a case of fattening up the WestConnex business case (by pumping in even more cars from Penrith & Blue Mountains) - so as to ensure all the expensive road tunnels east of Homebush will be filled up and hence generate the tolls to make selling of the WestConnex toll concession more lucrative (or less loss making)?</div>
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Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18318091649999857922noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1581958155614235186.post-38886853860868656242015-12-04T11:21:00.003+11:002019-02-24T11:22:24.445+11:00Turnbull & Macfarlane "Art of War" conspiracy strategy?Former industry minister Ian Macfarlane and Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull were previously good friends and close allies. In 2009, Macfarlane was a Turnbull backer in the leadership spill between Turnbull and Abbott. Macfarlane was also Turnbull's key negotiator with the Labor Party over climate change policy. This suggests between 2007 and 2009, Macfarlane switched from being a climate skeptic into a climate believer.<br />
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This week we discover Macfarlane proposes to switch over to the National party, apparently over dissatisfaction over being dumped from the ministry. Is Macfarlane now back to being a climate change skeptic like the rest of the National Party? The superficial interpretation of these events may indeed be true and the events of this week may have blindsided Turnbull.<br />
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But let's come up with some "left field" alternative scenarios. Assume Turnbull is a strategic genius (like his historical perceptiveness in relation to China and the Thucydides trap). Could he have masterminded a switch of his ally Macfarlane over the National party? Macfarlane then is in a position to take up leadership of the National party on retirement of current leader Warren Truss. He then modernises the National party and purges it of some of it's science denying elements. Macfarlane can also negotiate a new coalition agreement which frees Turnbull from policy restrictions which the current one imposes. Turnbull post 2016 elections (assuming he wins the election) is then in position to overhaul the Liberal-National party climate policies.<br />
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Turnbull also overcomes Senate obstructionism through a "Warren Enscht" strategy. He releases plans to reform the tax system & reform the budget deficit. He presents legislation for the new tax system/budget reforms **before** the 2016 election, but this legislation has a "<a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-22/warren-entsch-pushes-for-vote-on-same-sex-marriage/6874854" target="_blank">Warren Enscht</a>"-like provision that prevents it from become activated until the Australian people re-elect Turnbull as Prime Minister and hence give him a mandate. The current Senate has a choice: either they pass the Budget & Tax reform legislation or they block it. If they block it, Turnbull calls a double dissolution election. Either way, Turnbull overcomes the Senate and gets his legislation passed (as long as he wins the 2016 election). Turnbull only has to worry about winning an election once and once only to get his reforms done.<br />
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To cap it all off, his wife Lucy Turnbull takes over the Greater Sydney Commission. She makes the 41 individual Sydney metropolitan councils irrelevant by moving planning regulation into the district level of 6 Sydney subregions. Eventually, the Greater Sydney Commission is given taxing powers by being able to levy property rates alongside state government land taxes. Councils then lose their day to day relevance and shrivel into an electoral "college" that provides democratic input into the real local government tier of the Greater Sydney commission (and it's regional NSW counterparts, which the GSC legislation permits the formation of).<br />
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Lucy Turnbull also sets the ground work for <a href="http://sydneyprop.blogspot.com.au/2015/09/parramattas-city-circle-world-class-cbd.html" target="_blank">Parramatta-Olympic Corridor "city circle"</a> to become the new Greater Sydney CBD.<br />
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<br />Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18318091649999857922noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1581958155614235186.post-37436687324811890662015-12-03T10:12:00.000+11:002019-02-24T11:22:24.305+11:00Sydney Metro: Discussion Paper<br />
<a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7YddOEJT7SvdHlHdVlXV1dyZU0/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank">Discussion paper</a> on future of Sydney Metro.<br />
<a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7YddOEJT7SvMlU3aHR1NTR1VGs/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank">Brief version</a>.<br />
<br />Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18318091649999857922noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1581958155614235186.post-86940907849559090842015-10-31T12:49:00.000+11:002019-02-24T11:22:27.269+11:00Orbital network: Hornsby to CBD in 25 minutesContinuing on the theme of comparing "orbital" versus "grid" routes taken in the <a href="http://sydneyprop.blogspot.com.au/2015/10/spider-web-transport-networks-versus.html" target="_blank">previous post</a>, consider also the Hornsby to Sydney CBD journey. This journey is important not just for the Northern suburbs of Sydney, but also for Central Coast and Newcastle commuters and also "reverse commuters" coming from other parts of Sydney to employment zones like Chatswood and Macquarie Park. Reducing journey times of the Hornsby to CBD segment would have widespread benefits.<br />
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For the case of Macquarie Park, particularly unhelpful is the huge deviation to the north (as far as Lindfield) taken by the Epping to Chatswood link (ECRL), just prior to the junction with Chatswood. This has been panned by numerous observers as a shambolic debacle. However, as we shall see later, this deviation may prove to be a "saviour" in cutting down the Hornsby to CBD journey time from over 40 minutes to 25 minutes or less.<br />
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Post commissioning of Sydney Metro Northwest in 2019, the two main routes from Hornsby to Wynyard will be either via the North Shore line ("orbital" route) or via Strathfield ("grid" route). Let's compare these two routes:<br />
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A) "Grid route": Hornsby to Wynyard via Strathfield:<br />
- distance: 32km (approximate/"smoothed")<br />
- stops: as few as 7 stops (Epping, Eastwood, Strathfield, Redfern, Central, Town Hall, Wynyard)<br />
- travel time: 41 minutes<br />
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B) "Orbital route": Hornbsy to Wynyard via Gordon:<br />
- distance: 22km (approximate/"smoothed")<br />
- stops: 17 stations (typical service pattern)<br />
- travel time: 42 minutes<br />
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(Wynyard and not Central is the key stop in Sydney CBD for the purposes of this comparison, as it's the station with the highest quantum of office based land use and hence time sensitive commuting populations).<br />
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Note the "grid" route is quicker than the "orbital", even though the latter is 10km shorter. This is because the "grid" route has fewer stops, which in turn is a reflection of the quadruplication of tracks on significant portions of the northern line and the sextuplication of tracks between Strathfield and Central. The multitude of tracks allows service differentiation, with some tracks used for express trains stopping at fewer stops. In comparison, the North Shore line has only a single track pair and has limited ability to offer express services especially when it needs to operate at 20 trains per hour capacity. Another speed limitation to note is that both the "grid" and the current "orbital" route are slowed down by some quite sharp turns and steep inclines, north of Epping and south of St Leonards respectively.<br />
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Ironically, the much criticised deviation of the ECRL offers intriguing possibilities. In particular, the ECRL will be temporarily shut down for the large part of a year prior to commissioning of Sydney Metro Northwest in 2019. What if during this time, a tunnel stub was added near Lindfield to the ECRL tunnel. This should be simple to do by bring in a road header from the Chatswood end of the tunnel.<br />
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Then also plan for a 3km extension of these stubs to Gordon (alongside existing railway corridor south Gordon, or even continuing in tunnel). At Gordon join up the newly created tunnel stubs to the existing north shore rail line (adding an extra platform at edge of the commuter parking immediately east of Gordon station, so that the total of 4 platforms at Gordon will allow cross platform interchange between the two lines).<br />
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Finally, the remaining piece of the "Hornsby to CBD in 7 stops" puzzle is to create an "express tunnel" from Chatswood to the CBD. This is almost exactly what Sydney Metro "City" aims to do, except they are thinking of putting in stations at St Leonards and North Sydney/Victoria Cross before finally reaching the first CBD station at Barangaroo. However, the latter two stations overlap with existing station catchments in the lower north shore area of Sydney, which is an area that is already extremely well connected by public transit and already has very high public transit use.<br />
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These two stations are also potentially complex and expensive to construct (Victoria Cross will be especially deep and will cause challenging grades for the tunnel going under Sydney Harbour). So why not scrap these two stations, save significant cost in the process and allowing the proceeds to be used to for infrastructure enhancements elsewhere. (Sydney Metro users can still easily access St Leonards and North Sydney stations by using the cross platform transfer capability at Chatswood.)<br />
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So putting these all together, we now have a 22km orbital route from Hornsby to Barangaroo, which will be express south of Gordon all the way into the CBD - a total of only seven stations versus the existing 17 stations. Furthermore, the new express tunnel will be only very gently curved, and have very gentle grades making it very fast and efficient. There is also an operational consideration involved in that Sydney Metro will use modern signalling systems and rolling stock that will be incompatible with the existing double deck system. So initially the express tunnel might terminate at Gordon, until the signalling between Hornsby and Gordon can be modernised, allowing Sydney Metro to extend as far as Hornsby.<br />
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However, a major advantage of an express tunnel bypassing North Sydney is that it may offer the possibility of a "double deck" compatible cross harbour tunnel. This is because the gradient of the descent from Chatswood to Sydney Harbour will be much shallower, and suitable for single and double deck rolling stock. If additional openings in the future Chatswood platform screen doors are added, and if double deck rolling stock can be retrofitted to work with both the old and new signalling systems then it may be possible for these trains to still use the new express tunnel.<br />
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The Lindfield stubs also keep open the possibility of a Northern Beaches branch of Sydney Metro going to Forestville. Of course, whether it be either a Hornsby branch or a Northern beaches branch, there are disadvantages to branching. In particular, capacity and frequency gets halved with one branching (versus no branching). However, by putting the branch at the Lindfield curve, at least the main trunk route between Chatswood and the CBD gets the full 30 trains per hour frequency, whereas other proposals to add stubs at North Sydney will have the branching come in much closer to the CBD. If there is to be branching, best keep the branches as far out in the periphery as possible.Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18318091649999857922noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1581958155614235186.post-60809301279167833702015-10-30T16:34:00.003+11:002019-02-24T11:22:25.641+11:00Orbital network: "spider-web" versus "grid"Sydney's key economic corridors follow an orbital pattern, and it's rail network has a "spider-web" organisation. The diagram below looks at an example comparison of travel distances for the spider-web type of network versus a grid based network:<br />
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So some conclusions from the example above are that where the orbitals are elliptical, with a stretched out east-west axis then east-west travel times along the orbits are very competitive with the more "direct" grid network route. However, travel along the short axis (ie: north-south axis) can be quite uncompetitive. For this reason, the spokes of the spider web network should focus on north-south connectivity.<br />
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Greater Sydney's rail network (as planned for 2024, plus reserved corridors - see below) is an excellent example of these principles:<br />
<a name='more'></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvI02fx3Wp-fGzNhxz2mVweOscBS5qAvNiZjrynDCVTB9a_BU3OZvkERyUTzM8rHu4cyhEAdugvzsGkQzRbHMcOqkeENhb6iI_vG5yzuRjlxduLucKhf-YQaEB_AOJfQ3-yQ9AKmXjaokK/s1600/Parra+City+Circle+-+page+2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; display: inline !important; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="436" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvI02fx3Wp-fGzNhxz2mVweOscBS5qAvNiZjrynDCVTB9a_BU3OZvkERyUTzM8rHu4cyhEAdugvzsGkQzRbHMcOqkeENhb6iI_vG5yzuRjlxduLucKhf-YQaEB_AOJfQ3-yQ9AKmXjaokK/s640/Parra+City+Circle+-+page+2.jpg" width="640" /></a><br />
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Furthermore, the above considerations explain why the extension of Sydney metro to Liverpool via Bankstown airport is so effective. As shown in the calculations above, a route along the southwest orbital of an ellipse is shorter than a route using the long axis of the ellipse. The above theoretical calculations is confirmed in practice, as seen in the following distance measurements and comparisons:</div>
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At present, for the South line via Granville route:</div>
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1. Liverpool to Central via Granville = 34.5km</div>
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2. Cabramatta to Central via Granville = 31.5km</div>
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3. Off peak frequency 3~4tph, ie: every 15-20mins</div>
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4. Acceleration & dwell times: slow</div>
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If Sydney Metro is extended to Liverpool & takes over Cumberland line/South line (see rail network diagram below):</div>
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1. Liverpool to Central via Bankstown airport = 27.6km</div>
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2. Cabramatta to Central via Liverpool & Bankstown airport = 30.6km</div>
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3. Offpeak frequency will have <6min headways</div>
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4. Acceleration & dwell times: fast</div>
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Note on relative patronage: Cabramatta to Liverpool section has daily 19500pax, the section north of Cabramatta to Guildford only has 14500pax.<br />
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This means Bankstown airport is shorter route for Cabramatta and any stations south of Cabramatta. For Liverpool, it is 6km shorter. The relative patronage of these stations means the "winners" (who travel a reduced distance) outnumber the "losers" (who travel greater distances). However, even the "losers" really are winners once the 12min reduction in wait times and faster acceleration/dwell times are factored in.<br />
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Virtually everyone on South line wins if it is connected to Sydney Metro Southwest via an extension to Liverpool through Bankstown airport, as shown in this rail diagram:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeLjfpcFba-Q1b5TZ4I07He2xB1Waa2V80ZI2-PnZ7etjmtZS8RVUnsWTuwIx3VbTDs2OhDQRcTSd3_HiUFtsaYJXLv7DxSeH4qL_x1tEgBI4squncz2fRHb784pN_SqrfXc06l4uKfKi0/s1600/Central+Corridor+-+Rail+Map.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="378" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeLjfpcFba-Q1b5TZ4I07He2xB1Waa2V80ZI2-PnZ7etjmtZS8RVUnsWTuwIx3VbTDs2OhDQRcTSd3_HiUFtsaYJXLv7DxSeH4qL_x1tEgBI4squncz2fRHb784pN_SqrfXc06l4uKfKi0/s640/Central+Corridor+-+Rail+Map.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br />Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18318091649999857922noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1581958155614235186.post-7178311534852651992015-10-20T00:32:00.002+11:002019-02-24T11:22:26.206+11:00Parramatta city circle: comparison with Simpson's 'Yamonote'-like circleRod Simpson last year presented the idea of a Yamonote-like metro circle for Sydney. The key idea of his circle was to link up key centres in Sydney's north and central regions into a circle, such that anyone having access to one point on the circle can gain access to the the major facilities around the entire circle:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi55Gw-AhaEKgVsWsUaonyudpQHOFLjCy-OQGiNboW587ychIXjLkWxFPP78ZMROViFV7seSFD-wa_BNR3TndkCfxN5vVKhgXMZG8ZlcUAd0fXFJrjLbBomyppA8DfVWF3G9BUKs31LGnPm/s1600/Simpson+Yamanote+circle.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi55Gw-AhaEKgVsWsUaonyudpQHOFLjCy-OQGiNboW587ychIXjLkWxFPP78ZMROViFV7seSFD-wa_BNR3TndkCfxN5vVKhgXMZG8ZlcUAd0fXFJrjLbBomyppA8DfVWF3G9BUKs31LGnPm/s640/Simpson+Yamanote+circle.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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This year Rod Simpson has demonstrated thought leadership in relation to the Parramatta to Olympic Park & Strathfield light rail. This blog has taken up the cause of the latter idea, but substantially reworks the former idea of the Yamonote circle for Sydney and instead proposes the concept of inner & middle ring orbitals.</div>
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Why is the Yamonote idea flawed? For these reasons:</div>
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1. <b>South excluded</b>: By joining up centres in Greater Sydney's north & central regions (but excluding centres in the south), it partly solves Sydney's east-west divide at the cost of creating a north-south divide. In particular: Bankstown, Liverpool, Campsie, Marrickville & Kogarah are examples of centres that "miss" out on inclusion into the Yamonote circle. As a result, the southern regions of Sydney become unfairly disadvantaged relative to the north and central regions.</div>
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2. <b>Travel times</b> across this circle with the stops in the diagram above will be of the order of 45-60 minutes to traverse half the circle, which can be excruciatingly slow. Instead there will be a need for an extensive system of radial links that allow faster connections from one side to the other. However, if this circle is reduced and becomes a tighter, smaller, faster circle then yes it can be useful and in fact, this blog argues any world class CBD should be centred on a ring of train stations in the same way Sydney CBD has a city circle of 8 train stations. However, this creates a tension with #1 above, where the need is for inclusion of more centres. So in fact, a natural solution to both problems #1 and #2 is to create an inner ring (centred on the Parramatta-Olympic Park corridor) and a middle ring orbital (joining centres to the north, south and east). The inner orbital should then be at the convergence point of a network of radial connections coming from all directions (north, south, east, west, northwest, southwest, north east, etc).</div>
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3. <b>Alignment with NSW Government strategy</b>: The Yamonote circle as proposed by Simpson doesn't align well with either the existing rail network, or TfNSW's stated rail strategy. In particular, according to TfNSW plans, the Sydney Metro stages 1 & 2 will link up the Chatswood-Macquarie Park corridor with Castle Hill & Norwest (not Parramatta/Carlingford as proposed by Simpson). Sydney Metro will then continue from Chatswood to Sydenham and then Bankstown (not to Five Dock and Olympic Park as proposed by Simpson). These plans (as well as plans for a road-only Westconnex) are already in late stages of planning and contracting and are unlikely to change substantially and will lock in rail expansion through to 2024. There are not just cost but also capacity, governability and commercial/contractual issues in adding a construction program for the Yamonote circle alongside the Sydney Metro program.</div>
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4. <b>House prices</b>: almost all the centres on the Yamonote circle have very high house or apartment prices and then land value capture of the cost of construction of the Yamonote circle metro on top of these prices would mean only the more affluent half of Sydney can afford to live directly on the Yamonote circle. (None of the suburbs in the circle, except possibly a small part of Silverwater would have a median house price below $1 million). Those less affluent will need to live further out, or compete for limited amounts of subsidised social housing (which only increases the cost of housing for everyone else... a zero sum game in my opinion).</div>
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So how should Simpson's Yamanote circle be reworked? Easy: go ahead with TfNSW's Sydney Metro plans exactly as the Government has outlined, creating a "middle ring" orbital that includes not just the northern region, but also circles around to Marrickville, Campsie and Bankstown in the south. Potentially extend this to Liverpool via Bankstown airport, which will create a game-changing reconfiguration of Sydney's rail network as the <a href="http://sydneyprop.blogspot.com.au/2015/08/sydney-metro-extension-to-liverpool.html" target="_blank">Liverpool extension will naturally flow into a Cumberland line on steroids</a>. Including these centres brings in substantially more affordable housing.<br />
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Then create an "inner ring" orbital, pretty much as proposed by Simpson in his Westline report, that connects Parramatta to Olympic Park, Strathfield and Rhodes - ie: the <a href="http://sydneyprop.blogspot.com.au/2015/09/parramattas-city-circle-world-class-cbd.html" target="_blank">Parramatta "city circle"</a> proposed by this blog. As a bonus, the existing North Shore line, East Hills line, SWRL and the Badgery's creek reserved rail corridor form an "outer ring" orbital. The result is a comprehensive rail network with inner, middle and outer rings and a series of radial lines converging onto the Parramatta inner ring.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeLjfpcFba-Q1b5TZ4I07He2xB1Waa2V80ZI2-PnZ7etjmtZS8RVUnsWTuwIx3VbTDs2OhDQRcTSd3_HiUFtsaYJXLv7DxSeH4qL_x1tEgBI4squncz2fRHb784pN_SqrfXc06l4uKfKi0/s1600/Central+Corridor+-+Rail+Map.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="378" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeLjfpcFba-Q1b5TZ4I07He2xB1Waa2V80ZI2-PnZ7etjmtZS8RVUnsWTuwIx3VbTDs2OhDQRcTSd3_HiUFtsaYJXLv7DxSeH4qL_x1tEgBI4squncz2fRHb784pN_SqrfXc06l4uKfKi0/s640/Central+Corridor+-+Rail+Map.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
The Parramatta city circle includes some affordable suburbs like Auburn, Lidcombe and Granville yet is extremely infrastructure rich and is centrally placed within the entire rail network. In fact, the Parramatta city circle (even today, without building any new radial tracks) already outgun's that of Sydney CBD's city circle in relation to "hub & spoke" connectivity. It has nine radial track pairs versus only seven for Sydney CBD. It has a radial train track capacity of 145-160 trains per hour versus just 140 trains per hour for Sydney CBD. Plus there are the northwest & southwest T-ways and future BRT along Victoria road as well as a Northeast BRT from Burwood to Macquarie Park and East BRT from Burwood to Sydney CBD, and South BRT from Burwood to Bankstown/Hurstivlle. So the BRT network provides an additional eight "hub & spoke" routes, although arguably the Burwood BRT routes should be extended by one station to Strathfield to make it truly connect into the "city circle".<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-3gwycKyT6vM4iGfOKco_v6R0UV1c8wImm0_-0DZG7IylesEL_M6wPK7Ju006yR6MXK1hBb668dPYRQGrM3Xs7Mc_Sf6dyJwlweKHbQH8jKpREmwe7XMY4WKouIMHrXXG3-NMNch7ELhE/s1600/Parramatta+City+Circle+Poster+page+1.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-3gwycKyT6vM4iGfOKco_v6R0UV1c8wImm0_-0DZG7IylesEL_M6wPK7Ju006yR6MXK1hBb668dPYRQGrM3Xs7Mc_Sf6dyJwlweKHbQH8jKpREmwe7XMY4WKouIMHrXXG3-NMNch7ELhE/s640/Parramatta+City+Circle+Poster+page+1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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So there you have it - job done: you get three orbitals instead of one, with the only critical missing link being the Parramatta to Olympic Park and Strathfield connection.<br />
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<br />Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18318091649999857922noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1581958155614235186.post-72489701195201209952015-10-11T16:40:00.005+11:002019-02-24T11:22:26.418+11:00Parramatta city circle: MacPark/Global Economic Corridor as "middle ring"Malcolm Turnbull has announced <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/gold-coast-light-rail-pm-arrives-by-train-with-95m-promise-on-board-20151011-gk68rt.html" target="_blank">Federal funding</a> for an extension of the Gold Coast light rail.<br />
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In NSW the top two candidates for the next light rail line (amongst an original short list of four routes) are Parramatta to Olympic Park and Parramatta to Macquarie Park. At the moment, there is an intense competition between these two routes for which one gets funded and proceeds. Could further Federal funding for light rail make it possible for both routes to proceed?<br />
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This blog has argued the <a href="http://sydneyprop.blogspot.com.au/2015/06/dept-planning-to-announce-further.html" target="_blank">Olympic Park route should have priority</a>, on the basis of the CBD-scale urban regeneration and land-value capture possible there. On the other hand, Macquarie Park should first implement parking levies to bring it into competitive neutrality with other employment centres like Parramatta and North Sydney before it gets any more government funded infrastructure. TfNSW's 2031 travel modelling shows very little justification for the MacPark to Parramatta connectivity. In contrast, TfNSW projections for travel between Parramatta to Olympic Park are an order of magnitude greater than Parramatta to MacPark:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6Dh_rQGxqbQudC6hMk74cFyRr8pR7L3ld8rOmAWlqOVssEpwoIUVjEvW2P7yKKAWGpL33eDjivVMeeyuGUiCSSxKIiQ6bioEeY_tVTtFAkdyfGZu2qlv13Z0MpPSP27QGW1mUf-rjKLSR/s1600/Parramatta+City+Circle+and+GEC+Transport.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="540" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6Dh_rQGxqbQudC6hMk74cFyRr8pR7L3ld8rOmAWlqOVssEpwoIUVjEvW2P7yKKAWGpL33eDjivVMeeyuGUiCSSxKIiQ6bioEeY_tVTtFAkdyfGZu2qlv13Z0MpPSP27QGW1mUf-rjKLSR/s640/Parramatta+City+Circle+and+GEC+Transport.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a name='more'></a>Additionally, this blog has argued that a <a href="http://sydneyprop.blogspot.com.au/2015/09/parramattas-city-circle-world-class-cbd.html" target="_blank">Parramatta "City Circle" incorporating Olympic Park</a> is the smack-bang centrally placed "inner ring" commercial centre for the whole of Greater Sydney. The "CBD mandate" for Parramatta City Circle are it's 120K jobs, and 145 trains per hour radial rail capacity (exceeding Sydney CBD's current 140 trains per hour, and within "striking distance" of it's 300K jobs).<br />
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In contrast, the so called "Global Economic Corridor" of Sydney (within which Macquarie Park is contained) is best viewed as a "middle ring" arc of commercial centres having a role servicing regional quadrants of Sydney. That is, with just 60K jobs and only an single rail track pair, Macquarie Park's place in the metropolitan hierarchy is best viewed as a regional centre for the upper Northern region of Sydney. Likewise, other non-CBD centres of the Global Economic Corridor should be viewed as other "middle ring" centres, ie: Chatswood/North Sydney servicing the lower Northern region, Norwest/Castle Hill servicing the Northwest region, Bondi Junction/Randwick servicing the Eastern region. (Sydney CBD and "gateway" infrastructure like Port Botany/Sydney Airport should be viewed as shared by both the GEC and an east-west "<a href="http://sydneyprop.blogspot.com.au/2015/04/frogs-sydney-2051-forum-meyers-central.html" target="_blank">Central Corridor</a>").<br />
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This blog believes attempts to merge/converge the "inner ring" Parramatta city circle with the "middle ring" Global Economic corridor are misguided and will dilute the usefulness of both concepts. Instead, the Global Economic Corridor should be extended to Bankstown and to Liverpool, to service Southwest regions. This is a better match for Sydney's existing and planned rail infrastructure, which has well defined outer, middle and inner orbitals centered on Parramatta city circle, as well as nine radial track pairs converging onto the inner circle of Parramatta-Olympic Park-Strathfield. In contrast, the eight train stations of Sydney CBD currently have only 7 track pairs converging onto them, so (even today) Parramatta City Circle is the "rail centre" of Greater Sydney.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMG7pV9n8GX7NS0Ytmv4onVLDUiBALYiTDk8x-jy3dq2X4ONmE7Ptqky_vmffPIRWtbKDaUCCKp923jLN6P2avhS1ZWTdRAMhtOzypC_pF87lUDG_3i_yaWtGbAjCtPK8UrdQSoen4Zzop/s1600/City+Circle+Poster+2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="452" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMG7pV9n8GX7NS0Ytmv4onVLDUiBALYiTDk8x-jy3dq2X4ONmE7Ptqky_vmffPIRWtbKDaUCCKp923jLN6P2avhS1ZWTdRAMhtOzypC_pF87lUDG_3i_yaWtGbAjCtPK8UrdQSoen4Zzop/s640/City+Circle+Poster+2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br />Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18318091649999857922noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1581958155614235186.post-87122189386382070802015-10-01T13:34:00.000+10:002019-02-24T11:22:27.340+11:00Parramatta's "city circle": world class ring of CBD train stationsParramatta CBD is so much overshadowed by the Sydney CBD that it's characteristics as a CBD in it's own right are under-appreciated. I believe the biggest reason of the "under-marketing" of Parramatta CBD is that it is seen only through the lens of the high rise building zone around Parramatta railway station - whereas both Melbourne and Sydney CBD have the concepts of a "city circle" or "city loop" of 8+ train stations. Also, the boundaries of the Parramatta local government area are nonsensical, incorporating suburban areas far to the north of Parramatta River (bordering onto Hornsby LGA) whilst missing out on immediately adjacent employment zones like Silverwater and Olympic Park that are south of Parramatta River.<br />
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So it's important to redefine the conventional notion of Parramatta CBD. It needs to be more than a highrise zone around a single train station. It needs to incorporate diverse and vibrant precincts in the same way Sydney CBD has districts like Ultimo, Pyrmont, Darlinghurst that add character to the high rise business core.<br />
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The catch is therefore broadening out the definition of Parramatta CBD to the corridor contained within the "city circle" of train stations between Westmead, Strathfield and Rhodes:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghlxpkd70dmFDyYvHlD4q3eH-Z7CKjKqX_wqy2ON3-_5OB_HWj3TXIy3nUidKnk3XW9p99hY4iRSkabDUHy5NOfyiCqcmVfmgWTRPckvEuBpB9PPgw4lhVrHXjlMHTTuLoOnrAUuWlIxpl/s1600/Parramatta+City+Circle+Poster+page+1.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghlxpkd70dmFDyYvHlD4q3eH-Z7CKjKqX_wqy2ON3-_5OB_HWj3TXIy3nUidKnk3XW9p99hY4iRSkabDUHy5NOfyiCqcmVfmgWTRPckvEuBpB9PPgw4lhVrHXjlMHTTuLoOnrAUuWlIxpl/s640/Parramatta+City+Circle+Poster+page+1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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This definition is important, as Parramatta station precinct on it's own is not in the "world class" league. However, Parramatta "city circle" is clearly world-class as highlighted in the poster below:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhP3cM7wWrASOa2ZoTra_SHhMuKXAomJx4SV3Uq3UX_m4RcZ7xWkMjz8VRuykfkOIJN2ptRHfkbiE_83gf8nWjDZzN2IYh1mlm3ecN7hLHgtYhE4djKQV2G5aeZkH4abO3jSV4JiRnM5V07/s1600/City+Circle+Poster.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="498" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhP3cM7wWrASOa2ZoTra_SHhMuKXAomJx4SV3Uq3UX_m4RcZ7xWkMjz8VRuykfkOIJN2ptRHfkbiE_83gf8nWjDZzN2IYh1mlm3ecN7hLHgtYhE4djKQV2G5aeZkH4abO3jSV4JiRnM5V07/s640/City+Circle+Poster.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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High resolution version can be viewed at <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhP3cM7wWrASOa2ZoTra_SHhMuKXAomJx4SV3Uq3UX_m4RcZ7xWkMjz8VRuykfkOIJN2ptRHfkbiE_83gf8nWjDZzN2IYh1mlm3ecN7hLHgtYhE4djKQV2G5aeZkH4abO3jSV4JiRnM5V07/s1600/City+Circle+Poster.jpg" target="_blank">this link</a>. As seen in the poster, each of the station precincts within Parramatta "city circle" adds diversity ranging from food markets at Flemington, to the high interconnected railway interchange at Strathfield, adaptive heritage reuse at North Strathfield, the "Little India" retail at Harris Park, Millenium Parklands at Wentworth Point, extensive cycle routes and the recreational/office/hotel/sports mixed uses at Olympic Park.<br />
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Some quick facts about Parramatta city circle:<br />
* <b>Jobs: 120K jobs, making it the third largest CBD in Australia</b>. Sydney CBD is ranked first with 300K jobs and Brisbane is equal third ranked with 120K jobs.<br />
* <b>Train stations: 14 heavy rail stations from Westmead to Strathfield along east-west axis, and to Rhodes in the north</b>. In comparison, Sydney city circle has 8 heavy rail stations between Redfern and Circular Quay (and another two new stations planned for Sydney Metro at Barangaroo and Pitt St).<br />
* <b>Train capacity: 145tph (trains per hour)</b>. Has nine radial track pairs, comprising two lines from south (Old South, New South), two lines from the north (Northern, Carlingford), two lines from the west (Western and Eichmond) and six tracks from the east (Inner west line and four Central station express tracks). This outgun's Sydney CBD's seven track pairs and current 140tph capacity.<br />
* <b>House prices</b>: comparing suburbs within 10km of each CBD, Parramatta is one third the price of Sydney (Blacktown 2015 median house price of $620K vs Randwick 2015 median house price of $1.8 million).<br />
* <b>Area: approximately 10km x 3km = 30sq km</b>. In comparison Sydney's city circle from Redfern to Circular Quay measures 4.5km x 1.5km = 7sqm km, or one quarter the size of Parramatta city circle's land area. This makes Parramatta city circle more dispersed than the highly compact Sydney CBD, but still a reasonable "sizing outcome" as Sydney CBD is considered to be highly land constrained and has limited future capacity as a result. Parramatta city circle's four-fold greater size allows "blue sky" growth for decades to come whilst still retaining sufficient compactness and density for the benefits of agglomeration and public transport effectiveness. The combined areas of Melbourne's CBD, Southbank, Docklands, Fisherman's Bend and East Melbourne districts roughly matches the area of Parramatta city circle.<br />
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As seen in the 2024 Rail Diagram below, Parramatta city circle is at the entire of the entire Greater Sydney rail network as currently planned (ie: comprising existing rail lines, under construction rail lines, plus officially reserved rail corridors):<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPOsRoabQjew2q_YXlxQ6JTkHVG5i5O2YFzq4XP6Ff-nmgjK62W8049uPE_qh6FaMc3U5AxFvyxy25-P-Mlm9dPRTDc9VUePf2oPSjUXhevev5TNdgMmLFlAQ5aWO4NwrxBvRWCzd7Gtja/s1600/City+Circle+Poster+2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="452" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPOsRoabQjew2q_YXlxQ6JTkHVG5i5O2YFzq4XP6Ff-nmgjK62W8049uPE_qh6FaMc3U5AxFvyxy25-P-Mlm9dPRTDc9VUePf2oPSjUXhevev5TNdgMmLFlAQ5aWO4NwrxBvRWCzd7Gtja/s640/City+Circle+Poster+2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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This is a poster that incorporates all the above images into a single sheet:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtfCLQyl5ZDFYoOEGmbc_v2EphJrdNXzF3Jy4h_RHlV7gYxQws8UOBQrAwnsvwy5Pmy5ISJucoUhuplp5-2SfPLPomWR3nb8R73gacsSwzAkPkzJvaLEXNBQnZnTcOv1Zzk4eE4CHZuYvV/s1600/Parramatta+City+Circle+Poster+1.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtfCLQyl5ZDFYoOEGmbc_v2EphJrdNXzF3Jy4h_RHlV7gYxQws8UOBQrAwnsvwy5Pmy5ISJucoUhuplp5-2SfPLPomWR3nb8R73gacsSwzAkPkzJvaLEXNBQnZnTcOv1Zzk4eE4CHZuYvV/s640/Parramatta+City+Circle+Poster+1.png" width="556" /></a></div>
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<br />Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18318091649999857922noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1581958155614235186.post-46537166382942108902015-09-30T11:02:00.000+10:002019-02-24T11:22:24.937+11:00Tax reform: investment neutralityThe tax system distorts investment decisions. On the other hand, some forms of investment have a "positive externality" spill over into the welfare of society and rightly should attract concessions. The aim of tax reform should be to have the greatest possible degree of tax neutrality once positive externalities have been taking into account.<br />
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Most current tax subsidies (superannuation, negative gearing, franking) favour mature, and generally income generating investments over early stage growth investments. The cost of superannuation tax concessions alone costs $25 billion per year and is growing rapidly.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqqnvlAAl9Qh6p2Y1oM2o_5JigFNANIJInzwBwRCuWSQMWc1G2Un68MJav7zPNdk4U5HhHu5HvG_I4k7O1g_oJJqHr0Cgon2Htqmt6MsZUHSH7-3GROSOhKQTSOYeNxGm9LqA4cIPg0m4N/s1600/Investment+tax+reform.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="340" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqqnvlAAl9Qh6p2Y1oM2o_5JigFNANIJInzwBwRCuWSQMWc1G2Un68MJav7zPNdk4U5HhHu5HvG_I4k7O1g_oJJqHr0Cgon2Htqmt6MsZUHSH7-3GROSOhKQTSOYeNxGm9LqA4cIPg0m4N/s640/Investment+tax+reform.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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To incentivise growth, the tax subsidies need to be recast. Close off loop holes for mature stage investments that can stand on their own two feet. Then provide tax incentives to grow early stage investments like IT & biotech that at $2.5b per year are a drop of water compared to the ocean of superannuation and property investments. These tax incentives need to be targeted yet not be so complex or specific it amounts to "picking winners".<br />
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<a name='more'></a>The fundamental distinguishing feature of early stage investing is research & development expenditure in new "disruptive" technologies rather than investing in "sustaining" technology. The current incentive system for R&D is too complex, poorly targeted and ineffective. It needs to be recast so that even a single entrepreneur operating from a garage can access it. Furthermore, conventional tax incentives won't work in early stage startups as most of these are initially loss making and don't pay tax in the early years.<br />
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Ironically, taking concepts from the mining tax could be useful here - ie: assuming a prevailing 30% corporate tax rate, the government needs to become a 30% equity partner for the expenditure that startups incur in establishing patents, licensing technology, or hiring R&D staff. Unlike the mining tax, this 30% partnership needs to be a genuine partnership, where the Government funds it's 30% share upfront rather than only offering tax credits against future tax liabilities.<br />
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In terms of how loopholes for superannuation should be closed off, this should be done by putting caps on maximum balances for each investment category, ie: lifetime tax concessions for superannuation balances in property and mature companies should be limited to somewhere around $1.5m (balances below this amount serve to reduce call on government pensions via the pension assets test and so rightly should attract a tax concession). Super investments in startup and early stage companies would be uncapped (and also not be subject to the annual contribution caps), so they will continue to attract superannuation tax concessions. This would serve to grow the pool of funding available to startups.<br />
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Investment in greenfield infrastructure and public transit infrastructure should likewise attract Federal Government subsidies. A similar 30% co-funding model could apply - ie: treat greenfield infrastructure investment as equivalent to investing in early stage startups and also allow these investments to be exempt from superannuation contribution caps.<br />
<br />Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18318091649999857922noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1581958155614235186.post-53042717190516739322015-09-06T15:07:00.001+10:002019-02-24T11:22:25.218+11:00Sydney Metro: 2036 projection calls for Liverpool extensionThe last post looked at current 2014 and projected 2024 rail system patronage and capacity numbers.<br />
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Below are projections out to 2036. A simple across the board 3% growth rate has been used on the basis of the "KISS" (Keep it Simple, Stupid) strategy. (Explanations for each of the columns as per previous post: <a href="https://www.blogger.com/Sydney%20Metro:%202024%20patronage%20projections%20&%20it's%20hidden%20%22West%20Metro%22%20branch" target="_blank">Sydney Metro: 2024 patronage projections & it's hidden "West Metro" branch</a>).<br />
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This is because local suburb-by-suburb rezonings and developments are just rounding errors in overall rail system growth rates. For a land use change to have dramatic effects on growth rate on a line, it needs to be "CBD scale" or a cluster of strategic centres, or a very large scale land release over many years. (To put the latter into context in a simplistic manner, the 20+ years of large scale land release across the Northwest from Cherrybrook through to Rouse Hill translates into patronage of the order of an extra 10,000 peak hour pax, or 12.5% of total North Shore/NWRL rail patronage).<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOezcIJ18hUpaWwIkwZM1R3X_UW299WJVUactymoI9ZPQ_IBKj-sJBe_yXsWDVqvsGcrANf-sFE06xLwC7BmXnVjLj7NrGhlD4G5UGay7PXRGAGCQqIlHxDVQn7n5HonaY82QnbQtXe8Cr/s1600/FROGS+-+Rail+System+Model+-+Figure+3.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOezcIJ18hUpaWwIkwZM1R3X_UW299WJVUactymoI9ZPQ_IBKj-sJBe_yXsWDVqvsGcrANf-sFE06xLwC7BmXnVjLj7NrGhlD4G5UGay7PXRGAGCQqIlHxDVQn7n5HonaY82QnbQtXe8Cr/s640/FROGS+-+Rail+System+Model+-+Figure+3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<u>Nomenclature of sectors above:</u></div>
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Sector <b>F0</b> = Northern line's freight/intercity tracks (also services upper northern stations north of Epping). Terminates at Strathfield platform 1.</div>
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Sector <b>T0</b> = Epping to North Shore on dedicated northern line tracks (post quad Strathfield to Epping), then via Harbour bridge. (Upper northern line stations remain in F0)</div>
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Sector <b>T1</b> = Western express tracks to central</div>
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Sector <b>T2</b> = Merrylands to Inner west, Airport and Revesby</div>
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Sector <b>T3</b> = Sydney Metro, extended to Liverpool via Bankstown Airport, then taking over Cumberland line to Guildford, & continuing to Blacktown via Parramatta</div>
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Sector <b>T4</b> = Illawarra main tracks to ESR</div>
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Highlighted in yellow above are the capacity projects required by 2036. Note that the former Innerwest & South line has been split up. The section from Liverpool to Guildford has been handed over to T3 Sydney Metro as part of the extension from Bankstown to Liverpool via Bankstown airport. Without this handover, the Inner West line would essentially go into meltdown. Already it is the most congested line when expressed in terms of track pairs allocated to it (it only has a single track pair, whereas Western, Illawarra, East Hills and soon North Shore will have quad tracks in one form or another). Despite it only having a single track pair, it's daily patronage in 2014 is only 10% less than the Western line (126K vs 142K) and is higher than Illawarra line (110K).</div>
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As for the other capacity projects required, they are all based extending & on making better use of existing quad tracks on the Illawarra, East Hills and Northern lines. The latter envisages one track pair (dubbed "T0") having a dedicated 20tph passenger capacity between Epping and North Shore, and the other track pair (dubbed "F0") being shared between passenger & freight and hence has 6tph for intercities & upper northern line stations. The "T0" trains are anticipated to take much of the interchange burden from the Inner West at Strathfield (as discussed in the previous post) and will have dedicated use of the Harbour bridge tracks and use the flying junction to the middle track pair at Strathfield for this purpose. The "F0" trains are anticipated to terminate at Strathfield platform 1, to keep operations of the T1 express trains into Central as simple and as efficient as possible (avoiding a flat junction crossing a Strathfield).<br />
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So the bottom line for Sydney's future rail system is that out to 2036, the extension of Sydney Metro to Liverpool and the creation of a "Cumberland line on steroids" are the key steps required to keep up with passenger growth. Growth in the remainder of the system can be catered for by improved operational efficiencies of lines with existing (or nearly complete) quad tracks. Given the 10 year planning and construction horizons required, this means planning for a Liverpool extension of Sydney Metro needs to begin within the next 5 years for delivery prior to 2030.<br />
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<br />Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18318091649999857922noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1581958155614235186.post-45565975819599270112015-09-02T16:07:00.002+10:002019-02-24T11:22:24.796+11:00Sydney Metro: 2024 patronage projections & it's hidden "West Metro" branchI've been building a patronage and capacity model. This model covers the years 2014, 2024, 2036 and 2049. First let's look at the 2014 rail system numbers, and my projections for 2024. I've taken a pretty simplistic approach of just taking the 2006-2014 compound annual patronage growth rates and projecting these out to 2024, but this more or less aligns with TfNSW's line-by-line growth projections to 2019 (they use a slightly higher growth rate for the Western line).<br />
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Some more specific notes to explain the tables below:<br />
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1. <b>Baseline 2014 data</b>: taken from TfNSW Bureau of Travel
Statistics train station barrier counts.<br />
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2. <b>Forecast 2024 data</b>: projected from 2014 data using
historical growth rates 2006-2014.<br />
* NWRL data taken from TfNSW projections and added to North Shore
& NWRL 2014-2024 growth rate.<br />
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3. <b>AM peak entries</b>: apply to the period 6am to 9:30am.<br />
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4. <b>Suburban transfers/exits</b>: see explanatory note after
tables.<br />
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5. <b>Peak Pax to Capacity Ratio</b>: interpretation is as
follows<br />
* ratio ~ 0 to 1: well below capacity even during peak
hour (8am-9am)<br />
* ratio ~ 1 to 2: at capacity during peak hour, spare
capacity in shoulder periods of AM peak<br />
* ratio ~ 2 to 3: at capacity during
peak hour & during shoulder periods of AM peak<br />
* ratio ~ 3+: exceeds
capacity even in shoulder periods<br />
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Ok, here are my spreadsheet tables for 2014 & 2024. (Future post will cover 2036 & 2049).<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRxPTUikk_JMlJkOWjlBCCNOwDXXR84z8GUOjkmI5z0xr8ZQdS6itmf7B2BjttCclCKdESznWTef1wi5huPojjcjKqWOhjRCqIjPFBAUrlj0i8lbAZJMPIjWTE3AiCBUPfYn_71OzqUhmO/s1600/FROGS+-+Rail+System+Model+-+Table+1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRxPTUikk_JMlJkOWjlBCCNOwDXXR84z8GUOjkmI5z0xr8ZQdS6itmf7B2BjttCclCKdESznWTef1wi5huPojjcjKqWOhjRCqIjPFBAUrlj0i8lbAZJMPIjWTE3AiCBUPfYn_71OzqUhmO/s640/FROGS+-+Rail+System+Model+-+Table+1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Some interesting details discussed below are the following:</div>
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1. Sydney Metro already has a hidden "West Metro" branch</div>
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2. The critical role of suburban interchange at Strathfield in balancing overall system patronage.</div>
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Explanatory Note on Sydney Metro's Hidden "West Metro” Branch</h3>
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According to page 33 of 2014 NSW State Infrastructure Strategy Update:</div>
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"The Western Sydney Rail Upgrade Program will deliver civil and electrical infrastructure on the T1 corridor to enable longer (12 car) Intercity trains to operate and to improve the separation of Intercity and suburban services, increasing capacity west of Strathfield. <b>This is intended to complement the Sydney Rapid Transit project, which is Transport for NSW’s preferred option for addressing constraints between Strathfield and the Sydney CBD</b>. In conjunction with Sydney Rapid Transit, the SRF2 program, as currently costed, has an indicative benefit- cost ratio of 1.6."</blockquote>
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It is expected that of the order of 15,000 passengers would be disembarking Western line trains terminating at Central. As per above, these passengers would then be expected to interchange onto Sydney Metro at Central. So effectively, Sydney Metro already has two "branch" lines in the sense it is taking on not just the Bankstown line but also a significant amount of Western line trains from Central onwards. These sorts of numbers also make me question whether 15 trains per hour x 6 car trains are sufficient to handle the amount of Western line interchange required, and if very soon after deployment we could see Sydney Metro frequencies go up to 20+ trains per hour x 8 car trains (the pax:capacity ratio in the table above only reflects the Bankstown "branch".</div>
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It is recommended that Sydney Metro (south of Central) not be branched any further. The patronage projections in the previous pages indicate Bankstown line and terminating Western will eventually need the full 30tph capacity of an unbranched Sydney Metro. Adding any further branches will within ten years result in a problem (yet again) of how to “untangle” metro lines that are at capacity.</div>
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(February 2016 note: branching Sydney Metro north of Chatswood on the other hand <a href="http://www.friendsofsydney.org/2016/02/sydney-metro-nw-higher-cost-than.html" target="_blank">has a strong rationale</a> as it better balances the "south" vs "north" patronage, where south = patronage from Western + Bankstown line commuting into Pitt St/Martin place stations and north = patronage from north of Chatswood commuting into CBD).</div>
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Explanation about the critical role of Suburban Transfers (especially at Strathfield)</h3>
Note in the first table above that the Inner West & South line's total daily patronage of 126,000 station entries is only approx 10% less than the Western's line 142,000 station entries. (Burwood has been classified in the Inner West line, to reflect probable 2024 timetable & operational plans).<br />
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Yet the Inner West & South has 30% less current capacity when measured in trains per hour (14 vs 20). As seen in the chart below, considerable numbers of passengers interchange at Strathfield, typically getting off the slower all stations Inner West services and boarding faster express services on the Western line and Northern line.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSW9eZGb_msIe7GA62WDkEY842cphF3V8AQyc93L1lK5Hqo9QcqJtK0MRLk74yoKeDeIUcED50WpgsYj-ASOqqocmMUPs0vyAlmHEmzJvB6OwUycVS6H3DKqf7WlMqVGPUVLrkilbmVf2a/s1600/FROGS+-+Rail+System+Model+-+Figure+1.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="443" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSW9eZGb_msIe7GA62WDkEY842cphF3V8AQyc93L1lK5Hqo9QcqJtK0MRLk74yoKeDeIUcED50WpgsYj-ASOqqocmMUPs0vyAlmHEmzJvB6OwUycVS6H3DKqf7WlMqVGPUVLrkilbmVf2a/s640/FROGS+-+Rail+System+Model+-+Figure+1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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This interchange at Strathfield actually plays a critical role in balancing the overall rail system function, both at present and into the future. The present reason is because the Inner West tracks are capacity constrained by the “tangling” up with Bankstown trains in the City Circle and as a result are limited to 14 trains per hour (versus the 20 trains per hour achievable on the Western line). By having large numbers of passengers transfer at Strathfield, this frees up capacity on all stations Inner West trains to pick up more passengers at stops east of Strathfield. In contrast, Western and Northern line trains run express into the CBD, and as a result, do not pick up more passengers except at Burwood.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSoqJjccAi-IT8vvRac4JM_v-OHCbfNTyJ2jqjhmaKx3kgJugfAtH4_iHFcOQPlKPSOBCMiAgPKWO3sJZPziQ9uY3Var2lh9qjL_zd1s_4PwkDzQt2f0rOwRIJKsWLJcd7EqkisZ4dA6Jf/s1600/Northern+line.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="441" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSoqJjccAi-IT8vvRac4JM_v-OHCbfNTyJ2jqjhmaKx3kgJugfAtH4_iHFcOQPlKPSOBCMiAgPKWO3sJZPziQ9uY3Var2lh9qjL_zd1s_4PwkDzQt2f0rOwRIJKsWLJcd7EqkisZ4dA6Jf/s640/Northern+line.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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In year 2024, the Inner West line will have dedicated use of the City Circle as Bankstown trains will be taken over by Sydney Metro. This will boost capacity to 20 trains per hour. However, all this capacity is needed simply to meet the projected 2%pa growth in patronage in the 10 years to 2024. As a result, the interchanging of passengers at Strathfield is still needed to free up capacity for stations east of Strathfield. The Year 2024 model assumes therefore that approximately 10,000 passengers will interchange at Strathfield, except a higher proportion will use Northern line trains rather than the Western line. This is because in Year 2024, it is anticipated a majority of Western line trains will terminate at Central and not continue on into the CBD. It is also anticipated in Year 2024, longer (12 car) trains have been introduced on the Western line, boosting it's capacity to 25 trains per hour (when expressed in 8 car train equivalents). The Northern line will also be anticipated to have higher capacity as well due to a greater share of harbour bridge capacity ceded to it by the Western line trains terminating at Central. As a result, both the Western line and Northern line will continue to have some spare capacity to accept the interchanging Inner West line passengers at Strathfield.<br />
<br />Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18318091649999857922noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1581958155614235186.post-42919139426201956982015-09-01T22:24:00.000+10:002019-02-24T11:22:24.515+11:00Sydney Metro extension to Liverpool: system-wide consequencesLiverpool council <a href="http://www.liverpool.nsw.gov.au/council/media/media-releases/2015/july-2015/mayor-ned-mannoun-calls-for-metro-rail-extension-to-service-the-great-south-west" target="_blank">has called for Sydney Metro to continue to Liverpool</a>, instead of current plans to terminate at Bankstown.<br />
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This idea seems simple on the surface, but it will have system-wide consequences on deeper examination. Are these system-wide consequences positive or negative? After extensive thought, my conclusion is that an extension to Liverpool (using a direct route via Bankstown Airport) will be a game-changer for Sydney Metro, and make it arguably the most important line by far in all of Sydney's rail network.<br />
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This is all without any further branching of Sydney Metro, an idea I've over time shifted to become less in favour of. In fact, branching would be highly undesirable and a single unbranched line will provide supreme benefits of simplicity, high frequency and reliability whilst being a good match for the increased capacity requirements of serving Liverpool.<br />
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The key to why the Liverpool extension has such system-wide implications is what happens to the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumberland_Line" target="_blank">Cumberland line</a>. Given it's continuity with the Liverpool extension of Sydney Metro, it makes sense to incorporate at least part of the Cumberland line into Sydney Metro as well. This would bring Sydney Metro connections to Parramatta (a key centre that currently does not have Sydney Metro access). The result is shown in the rail diagram below (which also contains other rail plan ideas, but of main relevance to Sydney Metro is the Sector T3 orange curve).<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjy8opYbyyDDgWxgh63_MnLwtdS2OK0CtMurur9Xp6nkHDK74XFMJ3e3BzAhGHArI6F37kcr5S6ZKDP0RZGLsCiW5CatjN45tdjUvsqagxUmACjWfOEPW5yKI_h_YGaae9mbWJ6kTJq1EeJ/s1600/Central+Corridor+-+Rail+Map.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="379" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjy8opYbyyDDgWxgh63_MnLwtdS2OK0CtMurur9Xp6nkHDK74XFMJ3e3BzAhGHArI6F37kcr5S6ZKDP0RZGLsCiW5CatjN45tdjUvsqagxUmACjWfOEPW5yKI_h_YGaae9mbWJ6kTJq1EeJ/s640/Central+Corridor+-+Rail+Map.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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As seen above, incorporating the Cumberland line into Sydney Metro will finally allow rationalisation of the complex interactions of the Cumberland line with <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airport,_Inner_West_%26_South_Line" target="_blank">Sector T2's Innerwest & South line</a>. What are these interactions? There is a tension between whether the stations from Liverpool to Merrylands should have single seat (ie: interchange free) access to Parramatta CBD or to Sydney CBD. As a result, rail planners have tried to do both by having Cumberland line and Sector T2 share tracks up to Merrylands, where the former branches west (via Harris Park) and the latter to the east (via Granville). This has resulted in compromised frequency and increased complexity for both lines. The lack of frequency is a major problem, as with wait times of 15-30 minutes, the Cumberland line is an unattractive option compared to just using interchange at Granville. Likewise, the inner west line only offers frequency of 4-6 trains per hour at Newtown, which is unsatisfactory.<br />
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<a name='more'></a>By connecting the Cumberland line to Sydney Metro, the Liverpool to Merrylands stations will get their CBD access via Bankstown, instead of via Granville. As Sydney Metro will have higher frequencies (15-30 trains per hour instead of 8), faster acceleration and also reduced dwell times compared to current trains, travel times to Sydney CBD via Bankstown will be competitive with the current Sector T2 (Innerwest & South) Granville route. The need for Sector T2 (light green line in diagram above) to service these stations drops away and as a result Sydney Metro will have exclusive use of the Liverpool to Merrylands tracks and offer high frequency rapid services to both Parramatta and Sydney CBD. At the same time, Sector T2 becomes a lot simpler and has a lot of capacity freed up to offer a high frequency service for the remaining inner west stations. Sector T2 is still more branched than ideal, but one of these branches is distally located and very short (two stations) and is therefore more of a spur than a full branch.<br />
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Finally, this also solves "problems" for Sector T3 (Sydney Metro) itself. If terminated at Bankstown, it's substantial potential 30 train per hour capacity is underutilised, and there have been calls for additional southern branches to Sydney Metro. With the extension to Liverpool and onto Cumberland line tracks, Sydney Metro can avoid the need to add more branches. Branches are undesirable due to increased complexity, as well as causing crowding at CBD stations whilst people wait for the right train. Better to have a simple linear system that is highly reliable and very frequent... this is what makes metros like Hong Kong MTR so successful.<br />
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So the extension to Liverpool will be a win for Sydney Metro, a win for the inner west and a win for better Parramatta connectivity, a win for Liverpool and a win for Bankstown airport. Let's hope this idea from Liverpool council gets taken up.Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18318091649999857922noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1581958155614235186.post-48956605250911928432015-07-10T18:19:00.000+10:002019-02-24T11:22:25.077+11:00Parramatta Centric Revisualisation: Geographical AccuracyKey features of the <a href="http://sydneyprop.blogspot.com.au/2015/07/parramatta-centric-revisualisation-of.html" target="_blank">Parramatta Centric revisualisation of Sydney's rail network</a> are the middle and outer orbitals centred on Parramatta. These orbitals were diagrammatically shown as ellipses. However, as seen in the map below, this is surprisingly accurate geographically, as key railway stations and centres are located very close to a "best fit" ellipses drawn through them. The long axis of these ellipses is restrained to perfect east-west by my drawing program, and it may be that the fit would be even better if there was a slight rotation to the ellipses. Either way the fit is very good:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3LV5PBwN5rtb8FDbRin7UUoNBcfdW_AWQHJwyVS_48sfGa_8vIOtufYAK1Q4TS7J5UgecL3IOKqIWnjuC1lvPBgSrBfROxUxl-8ayxoyOr16ypvGsGhwjxWVuL47rBddvdHUtEHGnlofJ/s1600/Central+Corridor+-+Geographical+Map.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="401" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3LV5PBwN5rtb8FDbRin7UUoNBcfdW_AWQHJwyVS_48sfGa_8vIOtufYAK1Q4TS7J5UgecL3IOKqIWnjuC1lvPBgSrBfROxUxl-8ayxoyOr16ypvGsGhwjxWVuL47rBddvdHUtEHGnlofJ/s640/Central+Corridor+-+Geographical+Map.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18318091649999857922noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1581958155614235186.post-15538554398430295882015-07-03T12:30:00.001+10:002019-02-24T11:22:22.972+11:00Parramatta Centric Revisualisation: "City Circle" equivalentThe previous blog post outlined a revisualisation of the rail network with Parramatta at the centre. It also identified an outer orbital and also a middle ring orbital. But in Parramatta's case, does it have an inner orbital? Is this a "missing link" in the network.<br />
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In the case of Sydney CBD, a inner orbital is formed by the "city circle", ie: Sydney CBD does not comprise a single station but instead has a number of stations linked into a "circle". So what is Parramatta's equivalent of a city circle?<br />
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After some thought, it's clear that the inner orbital for Parramatta comprises:<br />
* Western rail line from Westmead to Strathfield<br />
* Northern rail line from Strathfield to Rhodes<br />
* Olympic Park reserved light rail corridor (currently bus route)<br />
* Olympic Park heavy rail station<br />
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This is now what the resulting three orbitals look like:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyZBpKHA2aoSLYhmXV2muOQKrF6Z5PBB4RJBmaHRqAwN3GOIBtYruUjtHuiqvMHGan4i7P41Tpy7-lqS5qAKMrk0qSJQDUofpgmtAMzQuQ9fh8bNntebaVutzfrEl54m-K11FOurFcaGjH/s1600/Central+Corridor+-+Orbitals+Map.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="390" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyZBpKHA2aoSLYhmXV2muOQKrF6Z5PBB4RJBmaHRqAwN3GOIBtYruUjtHuiqvMHGan4i7P41Tpy7-lqS5qAKMrk0qSJQDUofpgmtAMzQuQ9fh8bNntebaVutzfrEl54m-K11FOurFcaGjH/s640/Central+Corridor+-+Orbitals+Map.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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This now completes the Parramatta-centric rail network. The outer orbital comprises mainly double deck heavy rail. The middle orbital is Sydney metro for the most part although the section around Blacktown is a bus link/T-way. The inner orbital is then predominantly the Olympic light rail reserved corridor. The previous situation of radial lines not quite converging on Parramatta is also now resolved, in that they now converge on the Parramatta city circle.<br />
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<br />Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18318091649999857922noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1581958155614235186.post-80801200199785320332015-07-01T13:50:00.000+10:002019-02-24T11:22:26.950+11:00Parramatta Centric Revisualisation of Rail NetworkParramatta has been made Greater Sydney's dual CBD in the latest Sydney Metro Strategy.<br />
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One criticism of the existing Sydney rail network is that it is too Sydney CBD centric and consists mainly of radial lines with poor inter-regional/orbital connectivity.<br />
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But this is not so if you revisualise the network (plus officially announced reserved rail corridors and existing rapid bus T-ways) from a Parramatta-centric point of view. As can be seen in the network diagram below, Sydney's rail network forms a very nicely balanced combination of orbital rail routes and radial rail lines around Parramatta at it's centre. Surprisingly, these aren't just fantasy "lines on a map". Already existing (or under construction/reservation) today are a comprehensive and coherent set of inner and outer orbitals plus western, eastern, northern and southern radial lines converging into the vicinity of Parramatta. The missing links are relatively minor.<br />
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The yellow central area is the <a href="http://sydneyprop.blogspot.com.au/2015/04/frogs-sydney-2051-forum-meyers-central.html" target="_blank">Central Corridor previously discussed</a> on this blog.<br />
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Acknowledgements: the diagram below is my realisation of the network, after the initial conception of a Parramatta-centric rail network came from Bob Meyer at Cox Achitecture.<br />
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This type of visualisation should be used by TfNSW so as to change it's mindset and paradigm for future transport planning, as well as to educate the public and importantly, developers/business decision makers, on Sydney's transport geography and Parramatta's central role therein.<br />
<br />Adminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18318091649999857922noreply@blogger.com0