WestConnex Stage 5 & 6??? When does WestConnex end?

We know WestConnex has these stages either already under construction, or in planning:

Stage 1: M4 widening (east of Parramatta) and tunnel to Harberfield
Stage 2: M5 duplication
Stage 3: M4-M5 link
Stage 4: Western Harbour tunnel and possible Northern Beaches link

The latest report from Infrastructure Australia shows yet another stage is under consideration:

Stage 5: M4 motorway upgrade - Parramatta to Lapstone

(Source) page 7 from this report:

Could this be a case of fattening up the WestConnex business case (by pumping in even more cars from Penrith & Blue Mountains) - so as to ensure all the expensive road tunnels east of Homebush will be filled up and hence generate the tolls to make selling of the WestConnex toll concession more lucrative (or less loss making)?

Turnbull & Macfarlane "Art of War" conspiracy strategy?

Former industry minister Ian Macfarlane and Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull were previously good friends and close allies.  In 2009, Macfarlane was a Turnbull backer in the leadership spill between Turnbull and Abbott.  Macfarlane was also Turnbull's key negotiator with the Labor Party over climate change policy.  This suggests between 2007 and 2009, Macfarlane switched from being a climate skeptic into a climate believer.

This week we discover Macfarlane proposes to switch over to the National party, apparently over dissatisfaction over being dumped from the ministry.  Is Macfarlane now back to being a climate change skeptic like the rest of the National Party?  The superficial interpretation of these events may indeed be true and the events of this week may have blindsided Turnbull.

But let's come up with some "left field" alternative scenarios.  Assume Turnbull is a strategic genius (like his historical perceptiveness in relation to China and the Thucydides trap).  Could he have masterminded a switch of his ally Macfarlane over the National party?  Macfarlane then is in a position to take up leadership of the National party on retirement of current leader Warren Truss.  He then modernises the National party and purges it of some of it's science denying elements.  Macfarlane can also negotiate a new coalition agreement which frees Turnbull from policy restrictions which the current one imposes.  Turnbull post 2016 elections (assuming he wins the election) is then in position to overhaul the Liberal-National party climate policies.

Sydney Metro: Discussion Paper

Discussion paper on future of Sydney Metro.
Brief version.

Orbital network: Hornsby to CBD in 25 minutes

Continuing on the theme of comparing "orbital" versus "grid" routes taken in the previous post, consider also the Hornsby to Sydney CBD journey.  This journey is important not just for the Northern suburbs of Sydney, but also for Central Coast and Newcastle commuters and also "reverse commuters" coming from other parts of Sydney to employment zones like Chatswood and Macquarie Park.  Reducing journey times of the Hornsby to CBD segment would have widespread benefits.

For the case of Macquarie Park, particularly unhelpful is the huge deviation to the north (as far as Lindfield) taken by the Epping to Chatswood link (ECRL), just prior to the junction with Chatswood.  This has been panned by numerous observers as a shambolic debacle.  However, as we shall see later, this deviation may prove to be a "saviour" in cutting down the Hornsby to CBD journey time from over 40 minutes to 25 minutes or less.

Post commissioning of Sydney Metro Northwest in 2019, the two main routes from Hornsby to Wynyard will be either via the North Shore line ("orbital" route) or via Strathfield ("grid" route).  Let's compare these two routes:

Orbital network: "spider-web" versus "grid"

Sydney's key economic corridors follow an orbital pattern, and it's rail network has a "spider-web" organisation.  The diagram below looks at an example comparison of travel distances for the spider-web type of network versus a grid based network:

So some conclusions from the example above are that where the orbitals are elliptical, with a stretched out east-west axis then east-west travel times along the orbits are very competitive with the more "direct" grid network route.  However, travel along the short axis (ie: north-south axis) can be quite uncompetitive.  For this reason, the spokes of the spider web network should focus on north-south connectivity.

Greater Sydney's rail network (as planned for 2024, plus reserved corridors - see below) is an excellent example of these principles:

Parramatta city circle: comparison with Simpson's 'Yamonote'-like circle

Rod Simpson last year presented the idea of a Yamonote-like metro circle for Sydney.  The key idea of his circle was to link up key centres in Sydney's north and central regions into a circle, such that anyone having access to one point on the circle can gain access to the the major facilities around the entire circle:

This year Rod Simpson has demonstrated thought leadership in relation to the Parramatta to Olympic Park & Strathfield light rail.  This blog has taken up the cause of the latter idea, but substantially reworks the former idea of the Yamonote circle for Sydney and instead proposes the concept of inner & middle ring orbitals.

Why is the Yamonote idea flawed?  For these reasons:

Parramatta city circle: MacPark/Global Economic Corridor as "middle ring"

Malcolm Turnbull has announced Federal funding for an extension of the Gold Coast light rail.

In NSW the top two candidates for the next light rail line (amongst an original short list of four routes) are Parramatta to Olympic Park and Parramatta to Macquarie Park.  At the moment, there is an intense competition between these two routes for which one gets funded and proceeds.    Could further Federal funding for light rail make it possible for both routes to proceed?

This blog has argued the Olympic Park route should have priority, on the basis of the CBD-scale urban regeneration and land-value capture possible there.  On the other hand, Macquarie Park should first implement parking levies to bring it into competitive neutrality with other employment centres like Parramatta and North Sydney before it gets any more government funded infrastructure.  TfNSW's 2031 travel modelling shows very little justification for the MacPark to Parramatta connectivity.  In contrast, TfNSW projections for travel between Parramatta to Olympic Park are an order of magnitude greater than Parramatta to MacPark: