Tuesday 24 February 2015

Parramatta-Olympic Park-Strathfield Light rail will pass my house!

Report from WestLine Partnership came out yesterday supporting private funding of a light rail route from Parramatta to Strathfield via Olympic Park.  According to the map on page 23, this light rail line will pass right in front of my house (on it's way to Strathfield train station):




Wednesday 18 February 2015

Predictions for Sydney Trains 2019 timetable part 2: CBD to Parramatta local service and Cumberland line to be mainly one direction only

The plan to increase South & Innerwest services to 14 trains per hour and eventually to 20 tph raises questions about whether the flat junction at Granville can cope with so many train services.   Looking into this question leads me to my second prediction about the 2019 time table: the Cumberland line and the Inner West to Parramatta local service will operate predominantly in one direction only.

A flat junction is where railway line splits into two branches.  Such branching at flat junction causes problems when trains operate at high frequencies (due to trains travelling in opposite directions crossing each other's path).  This is shown in the diagram below, where the green line crosses over the yellow line.
Added to this complication in the case of the Granville flat junction is that there is sharing of tracks by both the Cumberland Line and the South-Innerwest Line.  Given the assumed maximum track capacity of 20tph, the question arises: how will the Inner West operate 20tph into/from the CBD, as well as provide scope for 6+ tph Cumberland line trains between Liverpool and Parramatta, all whilst coping with the flat junction issue?

Tuesday 17 February 2015

Western Express Line recap

A number of posts have appeared in this blog last year on an idea for a Western Express rail line connecting the Main West rail line to the Rozelle Railyards and then to Barangaroo.

This topic has recently come to media attention again, as internal TfNSW documents have come to light confirming that the lines with greatest capacity constraints are the Western rail lines - which the Government's Second Harbour Crossing only indirectly improves.  This post recaps and refines ideas for a Western Express line that adds large amounts of "blue sky" capacity rather than just an incremental improvement, and examines detailed alignment and station location issues.

Monday 16 February 2015

Predictions for Sydney Trains 2019 timetable part 1: full separation of T1(Western) and T2(South) sectors in 2019 part 1

It appears the current arrangements of T1 (Western line) and T2 (South line) sharing tracks between Homebush and Lidcombe will come to an end in 2019.  This prediction comes from the assumptions underlying internal TfNSW patronage forecasts released under Freedom of Information laws.

The significance of this change will be magnified by the removal of a number of stations from the Western line.  Granville, Lidcombe, Auburn and possibly Burwood will drop out of the Western line, and be serviced instead by the South line according to the charts below.  Some similarities can be drawn to how the 2013 timetable dropped express services for Kogarah and Rockdale in favour of shifting these stations onto all stations services.

Saturday 14 February 2015

Do agglomeration benefits go disproportionately to inner city property owners?

According to agglomeration economics, larger cities are more productive and generate higher and more sustainable incomes per person due to economies of scale, network effects, greater specialisation of individuals, greater diversification across the city as a whole.  Much of the increased wealth as countries develop economically is due to agglomeration benefits.

Hence it is important to look into who benefits from agglomeration.  This will take a series of posts, and in this first part I will present my "Urban Fringe Property Price Growth Model".  I don't know if anyone somewhere else has already formulated this model independently, but it's the model I use to understand my own personal observations of prices in Sydney and other property market... in particular, it answers the question of whether property prices can grow faster than incomes overall?