Predictions for Sydney Trains 2019 timetable part 1: full separation of T1(Western) and T2(South) sectors in 2019 part 1

It appears the current arrangements of T1 (Western line) and T2 (South line) sharing tracks between Homebush and Lidcombe will come to an end in 2019.  This prediction comes from the assumptions underlying internal TfNSW patronage forecasts released under Freedom of Information laws.

The significance of this change will be magnified by the removal of a number of stations from the Western line.  Granville, Lidcombe, Auburn and possibly Burwood will drop out of the Western line, and be serviced instead by the South line according to the charts below.  Some similarities can be drawn to how the 2013 timetable dropped express services for Kogarah and Rockdale in favour of shifting these stations onto all stations services.

This has major ramifications in terms of rail services to Western Sydney post 2019:
1.  Express services for Auburn, Lidcombe, Burwood will likely be less extensive than currently.  This is due to the reduced headways between trains as frequency goes up from 12 to 14 trains per hour in 2019, and fewer trains start at Ashfield. With the plans to eventually increase T2 services to 20 trains per hour, it will be harder and harder to schedule express services and instead the South line is likely to become an all stops line.
2.  Strathfield plays a critical interchange role and becomes a lot busier, with many South line passengers interchanging in order to travel on express services.  Given how full Western line services are at Strathfield, it will be Northern line services that will take on these passengers, as they will have spare room freed up by passengers from Northern suburbs getting off at Strathfield in order to travel to west to Parramatta and beyond (effectively a poor man's Parramatta-Epping rail link).
3.  Additional services starting from Parramatta will run on the South Line to the CBD, but will essentially be all stops or a majority stops.
4.  On the other hand, the Western line for stations west of Parramatta will become a lot faster and a lot more reliable due to the sectoral separaton of T1 and T2, and the faster express running between Paramatta and Strathfield.

Before patrons of train services at Burwood, Auburn or Lidcombe jump up & down in outrage over reduction in express services, I think this move is inevitable and has some other positives even for the "loser" stations.  The Burwood to CBD South line service will likely be ~5 minutes slower than if Burwood was retained on the Western line.  However, offsetting this will be an increase in reliability of train services for both the Western and South lines and also there is a one minute reduction in waiting times as frequency goes from 12 tph (every 5 minutes) to 14 tph (every 4 minutes) and eventually to 20tph (every 3 minutes).