Sunday 28 June 2015

Twelve carriage trains part 1: West Main line to get 50% higher capacity?

I've already posted abut the $19m budgeted for Western Sydney light rail, which is disappointing given it's been as much as 12 months since all the $400m, $600m, and $1 billion announcements were made.  I was hoping by now that TfNSW would have been budgeting for the procurement phase in the next 12 months, rather than another year of the planning phase, but given Sydney Metro has been in "planning" for even longer and is only getting $50m this coming year, it does seem overall that these budget amounts are just very preliminary funds and that big ticket procurement announcements will still be coming in the near future.

However, time to move on and look at the other announcements, which includes:
* $36 for SRF2 (Sydney's Rail Future stage 2)
* $94 million "to continue procurement of the next-generation intercity train fleet"

These are significant amounts, so what is going to happen with these initiatives?  The NSW Infrastructure 2014 update to the State Infrastructure Strategy provides some tantalising clues - perhaps more clues than what the secretive TfNSW wanted us to know:

From page 27:
Infrastructure NSW supports the Government’s plans to accommodate growth in rail demand through the implementation of Stage 2 of Sydney’s Rail Future (SRF2). Infrastructure NSW considers that the SRF2 program is being planned thoroughly, has strategic merit and – subject to detailed business case development of its constituent projects – should be a priority for additional investment in Sydney’s rail network. Infrastructure NSW recommends reserving $1.0 billion from the Rebuilding NSW initiative to accelerate the SRF2 program, including the Western Sydney Rail Upgrade Program.
From page 33:
Stage 2 of Sydney’s Rail Future (SRF2), which encompasses the Western Sydney Rail Upgrade Program and procurement of new Intercity rolling stock, focuses on providing greater capacity for the rail network, reducing overcrowding, network capacity constraints, and operational complexity at key points on the network. It is also designed to integrate the North West and South West Rail Links into the wider network. Stages 4 and 5 of Sydney’s Rail Future focus on the extension of the Rapid Transit System to the CBD and Sydney’s south west and south, through the construction of a second Harbour Crossing and a western extension to Bankstown – collectively referred to as ‘Sydney Rapid Transit’. 
Delivering network efficiencies: Sydney’s Rail Future Stage 2
SRF2 features a number of separate projects at varying stages of development for implementation over the next decade. The key elements of the program include:

• The Western Sydney Rail Upgrade Program, which includes:
– the T1 Corridor Infrastructure Program, which targets capacity constraints on the Western and Northern Lines (representing 30 per cent of all Sydney rail journeys) by upgrading traction supply, amplifying track and lengthening platforms on the corridor. Demand is forecast to grow faster for the T1 rail lines than for the rail network as a whole – Advanced Train Control, an integrated system for signalling, train protection and train control that focuses on increasing service frequencies and capacity on parts of the network.
 New rolling stock for Intercity services to replace ageing trains and deliver improved reliability and resilience. 
The Western Sydney Rail Upgrade Program will deliver civil and electrical infrastructure on the T1 corridor to enable longer (12 car) Intercity trains to operate and to improve the separation of Intercity and suburban services, increasing capacity west of Strathfield. This is intended to complement the Sydney Rapid Transit project, which is Transport for NSW’s preferred option for addressing constraints between Strathfield and the Sydney CBD. In conjunction with Sydney Rapid Transit, the SRF2 program, as currently costed, has an indicative benefit- cost ratio of 1.6. 
Did you see that?  I have highlighted in yellow above "enable longer (12 car) intercity trains".  Infrastructure NSW has divulged some of the internal evaluations being done by TfNSW on initiatives like 12 carriage trains for the Western Line.  This specific detail is something TfNSW have not disclosed in any of their glossy brochures or in fact that their Sydney Metro community consultation staff seem to be aware of.  Yet it seems to be in advanced planning stages, with Infrastructure NSW indicating the business case is sound with a high ratio of benefit to cost.

And now specific 2015 NSW Budget line items are provisioning a total of $130m for these initiatives.  Of course, readers of this blog would have already know about the 12 carriage trains from the post in December 2014, which looked at internal TfNSW documents demonstrating how 10 carriage Western line trains are some of the most cost effective measures available for increasing capacity.  As existing train lengths are 8 carriages, going up to 10 carriages is a 25% capacity increment and the platform lengthening needed was costed at under $300m for key stations along the Western line.  Now TfNSW are going even further and looking at increasing capacity by 50% with 12 carriage trains.  This should all fit neatly into the $1 billion allocated to SRF2 from poles and wires leasing funds.

Not what did Infrastructure NSW mean by "This is intended to complement the Sydney Rapid Transit project, which is Transport for NSW’s preferred option for addressing constraints between Strathfield and the Sydney CBD".   The problem with the 12 carriage trains is that they won't fit into the underground CBD stations as these are only 160m long and restricted to 8 carriage trains.  So these trains will need to terminate at Central station (which does have longer platforms at Sydney Terminal).  So what will people needing to go to Town Hall or Wynyard do?  My blog post speculating on the Sydney Metro design for new Central Station platforms provides an answer: they will likely be able to walk across or walk down to an immediately adjacent Sydney Metro platform and catch a Sydney Metro train from Bankstown into the CBD, which very conveniently will have high frequencies and plenty of spare capacity.

One interesting question would be whether these 12 carriage trains will be single deck or double deck?  Double deck seems to fit in better with the "three tier" strategy of differentiating between metro style services (providing faster acceleration and boarding) and commuter style services (providing more seats in double decks).  But there are fewer "off the shelf" double deck procurement options for rolling stock, so it could possibly end up as single deck if these prove to be easier to procure.  This will be an interesting decision to watch.



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