Wednesday 29 October 2014

Land price data inconsistency: is RBA using wrong data?

Is the RBA using wrong data for it's macro-economic policy setting?

This graph shows the RP Data median land prices, ie: north of $150K and even higher in capital cities:


These numbers match my general impression of land prices, with land lots at Edmondson Park in Sydney's South West Growth centre for sale at approx ~$320K.

Yet last year (2013 speech) the data the RBA cited had unusually low land price contributions to overall development costs:


RBA puts non-Sydney land prices at under $50K?


Strangely, the RBA 2013 data contradicts their own 2008 data, which had much higher land price estimates.  I hope the RBA isn't using this data to set their interest rate policy.  Whilst I agree with the speculated changes to APRA/RBA macroprudential policy to require higher minimum capital levels for banks (as a bank shareholder, I'm amazed APRA has been letting banks get away with 30x leverage on housing loans up to now), housing costs are clearly also a land/development site supply issue and just a demand side issue.

As for the issue of banks leveraging housing loans at 30x their capital, this is clearly irresponsible risk taking.  Lehman Bros went bankrupt with leverage at those levels.  What have their board of directors been doing - are they asleep at the wheel?  Let's hope APRA fixes this up soon...   If not, it will warrant a blog post looking into this matter some more.

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