I am one of many bloggers who are guilty of toying with the idea of joining the Airport line to Sydney Metro. However, on reflection about the implications of 12 carriage trains for the Sydney network, joining the Airport line to Sydney Metro will not only be disruptive in the short term, it will also be detrimental over the longer term (30yrs+).
This is because of:
1. Loss of opportunity provided by Sydney Metro capacity to establish new branches to other parts of Sydney to the south (Gary Glazebrook made this point recently & I think it is a very good point). Note also the Airport line PPP doesn't expire until 2030, so compensation would be payable to private owners if shutdown and conversion of the line happens before then.
2. The impact on operations of the Inner West line. At present, the two are natural partners and are connected via the City Circle. Disconnect the airport line, and then where would inner west all stops trains go? They can only feed into East Hills line, which is less good a match. Why? This leads me to the next point....
3. Longer term (with growth of housing in the Southwest), commuter style trains like East Hills line will be need the massive (50%) capacity increment and be converted into 12 carriage trains and these trains can't service the inner west line. Think this won't be happen/never be needed? Well it's happening already on the Western Line, as explained in the previous post. This then leads to the next point...
4. Airport line does not need any new/additional CBD access via Sydney Metro. It's current CBD access by the city circle is more than adequate. The problem is that it needs to share this access with East Hills line trains. That may be the case if East Hills uses 8 carriage trains. But if they are converted to 12 carriage trains, then Airport line will have city circle (anticlockwise) all to itself.
OK, what about the issue of trains terminating at Central... is that going to be a problem. I don't think so.... as shown below, only 25% (60 trains out of 240 trains per hour) will terminate at Central. The rest will continue to CBD, with multiple interchange possibilities along both the Western and the East Hill lines.
Sydney Metro = 60 tph
Western/North Shore lines = 70 tph
- West main tracks: 30 tph (8 carriage "equivalents", all terminate at Sydney terminal)
- West suburban tracks: 20 tph
- North Shore: 20 tph
Inner West/Airport/Revesby = 40 tph
- West local tracks: 20 tph
- Revesby/Airport: 20tph
East Hills, Illawarra & ESR = 70 tph
- ESR: 20tph
- Illawarra: 20tph
- East Hills: 30tph (8 carriage "equivalents", all terminate at Sydney terminal)
Total capacity of all the above is 240 trains per hour. Note if East Hills line feeds into city circle instead of terminating at Sydney terminal, then the 30tph extra capacity is lost and system capacity is only 210 tph.
Is 25% of trains terminating at Central too much? I don't think so. It's just the right number, as suggested by the following CBD station exit data:
Central: 21k exits (8am-9am)
Town H: 23k exits (8am-9am)
Wynyard: 22k exits (8am-9am)
Martin place & eastern CC: 18k exits (8a-9am)
ie: Central station exits = 21 / (21+23+22+18) = 25% of all CBD station exits
5. Does Inner west & Airport/Revesby need 20tph? They probably need 8-10tph at present, but in 30yrs with Sydney's population at 8 million people and the trend towards high density apartment living in the inner city, I can easily see them needing 20 tph or more, in which case it is time to convert Inner West & Airport into a metro line and resignal for 30tph.
[Further note: see projections for 2024 patronage - the innerwest line will be one of the most congested lines in the whole rail network]
3 comments:
There are so many ways to flay this feline it seems unspeakably cruel.
Here's yet another option.
1. Progressively lengthen platforms on the East Hills line and terminate the line at Central. This will now have to happen sooner rather than later.
2. Sydney Metro does not go to Bankstown. Instead it branches just south of Central. One branch is connected to the airport line. The other branch is connected to a new eastern suburbs line.
3. The Inner west line is partnered with the Bankstown line. So now trains are free to service stations such as Granville, Regents Park and Cabramatta. Some trains also run to Epping and there is a skip stop pattern east of Strathfield. So stations like Newtown now get 10+ tph.
Comment: The changes to the East Hills line would have to precede completion of the Metro and the down time for the airport line. This seems like a good thing to do in any case.
I did think about the inner west joined to Bankstown option, but the problem with this option is that the Airport line can't be shut down and converted until after the PPP expires sometime around 2030... otherwise compensation would need to be paid to the private owners.
On the contrary. All it requires is agreement. And what the government would have to offer is substantially more patronage and higher usage of the airport stations so I think the government is in a good position here.
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