Below are projections out to 2036. A simple across the board 3% growth rate has been used on the basis of the "KISS" (Keep it Simple, Stupid) strategy. (Explanations for each of the columns as per previous post: Sydney Metro: 2024 patronage projections & it's hidden "West Metro" branch).
This is because local suburb-by-suburb rezonings and developments are just rounding errors in overall rail system growth rates. For a land use change to have dramatic effects on growth rate on a line, it needs to be "CBD scale" or a cluster of strategic centres, or a very large scale land release over many years. (To put the latter into context in a simplistic manner, the 20+ years of large scale land release across the Northwest from Cherrybrook through to Rouse Hill translates into patronage of the order of an extra 10,000 peak hour pax, or 12.5% of total North Shore/NWRL rail patronage).
Nomenclature of sectors above:
Sector F0 = Northern line's freight/intercity tracks (also services upper northern stations north of Epping). Terminates at Strathfield platform 1.
Sector T0 = Epping to North Shore on dedicated northern line tracks (post quad Strathfield to Epping), then via Harbour bridge. (Upper northern line stations remain in F0)
Sector T1 = Western express tracks to central
Sector T2 = Merrylands to Inner west, Airport and Revesby
Sector T3 = Sydney Metro, extended to Liverpool via Bankstown Airport, then taking over Cumberland line to Guildford, & continuing to Blacktown via Parramatta
Sector T4 = Illawarra main tracks to ESR
Highlighted in yellow above are the capacity projects required by 2036. Note that the former Innerwest & South line has been split up. The section from Liverpool to Guildford has been handed over to T3 Sydney Metro as part of the extension from Bankstown to Liverpool via Bankstown airport. Without this handover, the Inner West line would essentially go into meltdown. Already it is the most congested line when expressed in terms of track pairs allocated to it (it only has a single track pair, whereas Western, Illawarra, East Hills and soon North Shore will have quad tracks in one form or another). Despite it only having a single track pair, it's daily patronage in 2014 is only 10% less than the Western line (126K vs 142K) and is higher than Illawarra line (110K).
As for the other capacity projects required, they are all based extending & on making better use of existing quad tracks on the Illawarra, East Hills and Northern lines. The latter envisages one track pair (dubbed "T0") having a dedicated 20tph passenger capacity between Epping and North Shore, and the other track pair (dubbed "F0") being shared between passenger & freight and hence has 6tph for intercities & upper northern line stations. The "T0" trains are anticipated to take much of the interchange burden from the Inner West at Strathfield (as discussed in the previous post) and will have dedicated use of the Harbour bridge tracks and use the flying junction to the middle track pair at Strathfield for this purpose. The "F0" trains are anticipated to terminate at Strathfield platform 1, to keep operations of the T1 express trains into Central as simple and as efficient as possible (avoiding a flat junction crossing a Strathfield).
So the bottom line for Sydney's future rail system is that out to 2036, the extension of Sydney Metro to Liverpool and the creation of a "Cumberland line on steroids" are the key steps required to keep up with passenger growth. Growth in the remainder of the system can be catered for by improved operational efficiencies of lines with existing (or nearly complete) quad tracks. Given the 10 year planning and construction horizons required, this means planning for a Liverpool extension of Sydney Metro needs to begin within the next 5 years for delivery prior to 2030.
No comments:
Post a Comment